(Bloomberg) — Stocks lost traction as a roughly $430 billion plunge in Nvidia Corp.’s value raised speculation that the rally in the industry that has powered the bull market was due for a breather.
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While various sectors outside the technology world advanced on Monday, Nvidia extended a three-day rout to 13% — crossing the technical threshold of a correction. The chipmaker at the heart of the artificial-intelligence revolution has become the most-expensive stock in the S&P 500. It remains up almost 140% this year, making it the second-best performer in the benchmark gauge, behind Super Micro Computer Inc., another favorite AI play.
Following a tech-led rally, Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha said US equities are set to pause. There’s a lot of good news baked into markets, and if that optimism proves unjustified, there could be downside risks, Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets noted. To John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer, while the bull market appears sustainable, some profit-taking should be expected.
“We remain concerned about a near-term unwind of many year-to-date leaders,” said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG. “If the S&P 500 is going to avoid a bigger pullback into July, bulls need to see continued rotation below the surface.”
The S&P 500 fell below 5,450. Energy and financial shares rose as tech retreated. The Nasdaq 100 lost over 1% after coming close to the 20,000 mark last week. Nvidia sank 6.7% Monday. A gauge of chipmakers dropped 3%, with 29 of its 30 stocks down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed.
Treasury 10-year yields fell two basis points to 4.23%. Bitcoin slumped below $60,000. Losses are piling up in the crypto market after its second-worst weekly decline of 2024, a reflection of cooling demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and uncertainty over monetary policy.
More than a quarter of respondents in the latest MLIV Pulse survey plan to cut their stock holdings over the next month. That compares to 19% who expect to add exposure, and the gap between the potential sellers and buyers in the largest since October.
The S&P 500 is expected to close the year at 5,606, according to a median of 586 responses. That’s less than 3% above current levels, indicating that the rally has little left after a 14% gain so far in 2024. Additionally, almost half of survey participants expect a correction to begin later this year.
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To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, if the weakness in a few big-cap tech names spills over into the rest of the group, it’s likely going to create some problems for the broad market. At least over the near-term.
“A decline in the tech sector is certainly possible, even if the sector is going to do well during the summer months overall,” Maley noted. “Even if you agree with the most-bullish scenario for the AI phenomenon for the second half of 2024, no group moves in a straight line.”
The strategist noted that the upcoming results from Micron Technology Inc. on Wednesday could be key.
To Marko Kolanovic at JPMorgan Chase & Co., the shrinking share of stocks driving US equity indexes is worrying.
“Rising markets on narrowing breadth has historically been an ominous sign,” he wrote.
Just a handful of “higher quality” megacaps driving the performance of US stocks shows the market is focusing more on softening economic growth, than on inflation and rates, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Mike Wilson. Stick to high quality large caps and defensives, they added.
The team also highlighted that a “narrow breadth” is not necessarily a bad thing going by historic performance. Until growth slows in “a more meaningful way,” the team expects narrow market performance to persist.
“The stock market is not in a bubble, and while megacap growth stock valuations are stretched, stock prices have not decoupled from fundamentals as they did during the tech bubble of 2000,” said Emily Bowersock Hill at Bowersock Capital Partners.
“On the one hand, Nvidia’s rich valuation is ludicrous,” she noted. “On the other hand, the AI revolution promises to be real, and a bonanza for the companies at its forefront.”
Corporate Highlights:
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. surged after an announcement late Friday that the firm expected to receive more than $69.4 million in proceeds from the cash exercise of warrants last week.
Oracle Corp. warned investors that a new law potential banning TikTok in the US threatens to hurt its financial results.
Apple Inc. risks billions of euros of new fines over its App Store rules as European Union antitrust regulators escalated a growing conflict over rules that strike at the heart of the iPhone maker’s business model.
Airbus SE cut its earnings and aircraft-delivery goals for the year as persistent supply-chain issues continue to deprive the European planemaker of vital components, dealing a setback to the company at a time when demand for its jets is at a record.
DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s water treatment business, which the US chemicals group is planning to spin out, is drawing separate takeover interest from potential industry buyers, people with knowledge of the matter said.
Novo Nordisk A/S plans to invest $4.1 billion in another US factory, plowing more money into its biggest market amid rising discontent there over the cost of its obesity and diabetes drugs.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. soared after its drug succeeded in treating a progressive and deadly form of heart disease, potentially opening up a new avenue for the company’s top-selling product.
Key events this week:
US Conference Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
Fed’s Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman speak, Tuesday
US new home sales, Wednesday
China industrial profits, Thursday
Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Thursday
US durable goods, initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
Nike releases earnings, Thursday
Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment, industrial production, Friday
US PCE inflation, spending and income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0736
The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2687
The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 159.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 6.7% to $59,418.56
Ether fell 3.8% to $3,303.63
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.23%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.42%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.08%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $81.68 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,332.46 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Kasia Klimasinska, Ryan Vlastelica, Jeran Wittenstein, Carly Wanna, Sujata Rao, Catherine Bosley and Matthew Burgess.
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