Crowded market themes may have no place in ETFs

The market may be entering a new phase: The shaking out of the most crowded “non-traditional” strategies.

ETF Action founding partner Mike Akins contends not everything getting stuffed into exchange-traded funds, including private assets, makes sense and they need to be questioned a little bit.

“The ETF wrapper is just more efficient for a lot of things. Not everything,” Akins told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week, adding that “I always say I’m an ETF first type of guy, but I’m not an ETF only.”

According to Akins, it’s more about what’s going in the world than the ETF structure. He finds investors are more interested in exposure to real asset themes such as infrastructure and industrial reshoring right now than artificial intelligence.

“The ability to get [an] ETF to market has become very mainstream. It’s super easy if you have the right provider or partner,” said Akins. “So, I think the investor is going to drive that next theme based on the market.”

He expects that should propel ETF product innovation — for better or for worse.

“There is always that little bit of performance chasing that goes on, and sometimes by the time the themes get to market, the trade is played out,” said Akins. “But there’s no reason to think within the ETF space that we’re going to run out of innovation.”

He lists the macroeconomic landscape, leaders and laggard changes as catalysts for adaption in the industry. Akins contends new themed funds could turn into tactical tools that put more responsibility on investors.

“If you’re investing in these strategies that are niche… your success goes from relying on the manager to your ability to use the product at the right time,” he said. “The onus is on you to decide whether it’s a good time to invest in.”

That dynamic is setting up a shakeout, especially in the hottest corners of options-based product design. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, Akins expects a consolidation of the non-traditional ETF strategies.

He pointed to a wave of recent so-called copycat launches — with issuers rushing out similar products, including different covered call and buffer strategies.

“We’re going to start seeing a consolidation to those strategies that have performed the best and that have gained market share, ” he said. “So, I think there’s going to be a consolidation shift. I think they’ll continue to grow and get adoption from investors. But I think that we’re going to start seeing some serious winners and losers within that.”

His reason: Everybody launched something, and you can’t have that many strategies tracking the same spot.

At the same time, ETF innovation may be shifting from what funds own to how they’re run. Tidal Financial Group’s Aga Kuplinska sees AI increasingly moving beyond simple “AI themed” portfolios, finding its way into the investment process. 

Tidal is already seeing early signs of that transition in the marketplace, Kuplinska told CNBC in the same interview.

“We have seen already on our platform, launches or filings of products that are AI-enhanced or AI-managed,” the firm’s senior vice president of product development said, calling it an area where “we are only scratching the surface.”