The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index has reached “Greed” for the first time since October 2025, while the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin’s price above $62,000 on April 17 sits at 99.9% YES.
Market reaction
The April 18 market shows similarly high odds at 99.9% YES. US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz have added volatility, but the index’s shift to “Greed” indicates traders are pricing in a positive outlook despite the geopolitical noise.
Combined 24-hour USDC volume on the April 18 market is $356,534. It takes just $800 to move the price 5 percentage points, so the market is liquid but thin enough that large trades can move prices meaningfully. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was a 4-point spike, likely driven by buy orders following the Fear and Greed Index shift.
Why it matters
The Fear and Greed Index moving to “Greed” is a concrete sentiment change, not background noise. At 99¢, YES shares pay $1 if Bitcoin stays above $62,000 by April 18, making this essentially a break-even trade at current levels. Traders betting on further bullish momentum or a geopolitical resolution would need prices to surge beyond current expectations to find real value here.
What to watch
Large Bitcoin purchases by figures like Michael Saylor or Changpeng Zhao could push sentiment further. On the geopolitical side, a ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict or a major crypto adoption announcement could move the index from “Greed” to “Extreme Greed.”
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