Iranian President’s praise for the Revolutionary Guard’s handling of the recent conflict has pushed ceasefire odds lower. Ceasefire by April 30 sits at 14.5% YES, down from 32% yesterday.
Market reaction
The market for Trump announcing an end to military operations by April 30 has dropped sharply, with traders pricing in the hawkish tone as the initial ceasefire expiration approaches. On the regime stability front, odds of an Iranian regime fall by June 30 hold at 8.5% YES, up slightly from 6% yesterday. The US forces entering Iran market remains quiet with no current trading activity, suggesting traders don’t expect a full-scale invasion as the immediate outcome even as tensions rise.
Why it matters
The President’s rhetoric signals a hardened Iranian stance with nine days left before the April 30 deadline. The IRGC’s firm control is read as a stabilizing factor for the regime itself (hence only 8.5% on regime fall), but it also makes diplomatic concessions less likely. The absence of activity in the US forces market means the current expectation is continued conflict short of invasion.
What to watch
Face value volume for the ceasefire market is at $213,788, with actual USDC traded at $68,607. It takes $4,074 to move the odds by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. A 5-point spike at 6:59 PM quickly reverted, showing the market reacts fast to news but corrects just as fast. Watch for intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar, and statements from US officials like Rubio or Hegseth, which could shift negotiation expectations.
At 14.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire is declared by April 30, a 6.9x return. That bet requires substantial diplomatic progress in nine days, which looks unlikely given current postures. The President’s statement could be a negotiating tactic, but without diplomatic breakthroughs or softer rhetoric, the odds favor continued conflict.
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