May Nymex natural gas (NGK26) on Tuesday closed up +0.009 (+0.35%).
Nat-gas prices finished higher on Tuesday as the outlook for below-normal US spring temperatures could potentially boost nat-gas heating demand. The Commodity Weather Group said Tuesday that below-average temperatures are expected across most of the US through May 2.
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Last Friday, nat-gas prices tumbled to a 1.5-year nearest-futures low amid robust US gas storage. EIA nat-gas inventories as of April 17 were +7.1% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling abundant US nat-gas supplies.
Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices. On April 7, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 109.59 bcf/day from a March estimate of 109.49 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs posting a 2.5-year high in late February.
The outlook for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for the foreseeable future is supportive for nat-gas as the closure will curb Middle Eastern nat-gas supplies, potentially boosting US nat-gas exports to make up for the shortfall.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Tuesday was 110.0 bcf/day (+3.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Tuesday was 72.4 bcf/day (+13.9% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday were 19.3 bcf/day (-3.9% w/w), according to BNEF.
Nat-gas prices have some medium-term support on the outlook for tighter global LNG supplies. On March 19, Qatar reported “extensive damage” at the world’s largest natural gas export plant at Ras Laffan Industrial City. Qatar said the attacks by Iran damaged 17% of Ras Laffan’s LNG export capacity, a damage that will take three to five years to repair. The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, and a reduction in its capacity could boost US nat-gas exports. Also, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in Iran has sharply curtailed nat-gas supplies to Europe and Asia.
As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended April 18 rose +6.5% y/y to 77,299 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending April 18 rose +1.8% y/y to 4,327,186 GWh.
