by Michael
Everyone has been waiting to see what Iran’s plan for the Strait of Hormuz was going to look like, and now we know. President Trump and his team were hoping that the Iranians would agree to allow commercial vessels to freely travel through the Strait of Hormuz, but that was never going to happen, and that should be very clear to everyone at this stage. Iran’s plan will permanently ban any ships belonging to the U.S., Israel and other “hostile” nations from ever passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Other nations that have “caused damage” to Iran will be forced to pay compensation if they wish to travel through the Strait. The Trump administration can never accept this plan, and neither can the rest of the world. So there will be more war, and that is really bad news for all of us.
Yesterday, when I wrote that “the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened” a lot of people thought that I was nuts.
But that is literally Iran’s plan.
Iran intends to permanently control the Strait. Nations that are “hostile” to Iran such as the United States and Israel will be permanently blocked from passing through, while other nations that have “harmed” Iran will be forced to pay compensation…
But the Iranian state news agency Fars on Thursday published an initial draft plan that placed much more restrictive conditions on ship traffic through Hormuz. The plan is under review by an Iranian parliamentary committee, according to Fars.
Under the apparent draft, Iran would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the strait. Other nations that have harmed Iran would not be allowed to transit until compensation is paid, according to the draft. Tehran would impose penalties on violators equivalent to 20% of the value of cargo aboard a ship.
That summary from CNBC is pretty good, but it left out some of the details.
The following is a machine translation of a summary of the plan that was originally published by Iran’s Fars news agency…
The passage of vessels belonging to the United States, Israelis and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited.Ships related to Israel, whether military or civilian, will not have the right to transit through this area.Vessels or cargoes that play a role in actions against the Resistance Front will also be subject to the ban.Countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran will not receive permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf until compensation is paid.Heavy fines, including up to 20% of the value of the goods, will be imposed on violators. The cargo is anticipated.The government will be required, in cooperation with the armed forces, to assume responsibilities such as guiding navigation, monitoring vessel traffic, and protecting the security and environment of the Persian Gulf.This plan is still in the expert review stage, and the parliament has asked experts to submit their suggestions for completing it.
Wow.
The Iranians are really going for it.
I think that they really believe that they can force President Trump to accept this.
The Hormuz Letter has also issued a detailed summary of Iran’s plan…
The Iranians have no intention of being reasonable.
They want to fully humiliate President Trump and the United States of America.
So now the ball is in Trump’s court.
Just a little while ago, CBS News reported that Trump “was scheduling a phone call with Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman to discuss Iran matters”…
President Trump on Thursday was scheduling a phone call with Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman to discuss Iran matters, U.S. officials told CBS News.
Saudi Arabia and the crown prince have been involved in many of the efforts to de-escalate the situation in the Gulf. In the wake of the U.S. calling off a large attack on Iran over the weekend, Mr. Trump said Saudi Arabia was one of the countries that asked for it to be called off.
Last week, Saudi Arabia and Qatar strongly urged Trump to call off planned airstrikes and negotiate with Iran.
But now nobody can deny that Iran never intends to open up the Strait of Hormuz.
Of course if the U.S. starts bombing Iran again, the Iranians will hit back very hard.
In fact, the Iranians have threatened to “black out” the entire Gulf region if their power plants get targeted…
Iran intensified its threats toward its Gulf neighbors last week, conveying messages it would “black out” the entire region if the United States struck its power plants and rattling off a list of specific targets, two officials told AFP.
The warning followed threats by President Trump of a massive attack against Iran, which he later walked back over the weekend citing requests from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar and a renewed hope for a breakthrough in talks.
“Iran threatened to black out the Gulf, country by country, if Trump attacked its power plants,” a Gulf official told AFP, with another regional official confirming the messaging.
There are no good solutions now.
Allowing the Iranians to permanently close the Strait of Hormuz would be unthinkable.
The alternative is an apocalyptic showdown with Iran, and that would be unthinkable too.
But I don’t see how more war can possibly be avoided now.
On Thursday, the Houthis hit another Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, and they conducted strikes on opposing troop concentrations…
Meanwhile, Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen claimed Thursday to have attacked Saudi troop concentrations there. The Houthis said Wednesday that they struck a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea off the coast from Riyahd’s Yanbu export terminal, which has played a key role in diverting oil shipments.
Another tanker reported hearing two explosions off the coast of Oman while transiting Hormuz, according to a Wednesday incident report from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre. The crew and vessel are safe, according to the UKMTO.
The two explosions in the Strait of Hormuz were apparently the result of Iran successfully hitting two “hostile” targets…
Tankers are going to continue to get attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea until one of two things happens.
Either the Trump administration surrenders and gives Iran what they want, or the Iranians and the Houthis are militarily forced to stop shooting at commercial vessels.
Both of those options would have enormous implications.
Meanwhile, fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has erupted once again…
The Great Middle East War has been raging since October 7th, 2023 and there is no end in sight.
Those that have kept hoping for a “deal” that will bring a permanent end to the fighting have been disappointed over and over again.
I am sure that we will continue to see more wishful headlines about a potential “deal” with Iran, but the Iranians have already told us what the “deal” looks like, and they expect us to accept it.
Needless to say, the Trump administration can never agree to what Iran is proposing, and so a lot more conflict is ahead.
