Patient readers, sorry to have published this early. Here is the Full Cleveland. –lambert
Positively glowing: fluorescent mammals are far more common than earlier thought, study suggests Guardian
Scavenging hyenas save carcass disposal costs Monga Bay
Mincing machine of the bond markets has spread the pain wide FT
The bond market meltdown is going to get worse before it gets better Markets Insider
Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s Bonds WSJ
Climate
The Rays of the Sun Bill McKibben, The Crucial Years
Glacial lake floods: A growing, unpredictable climate risk Channel News Asia
Biochar is a ‘shovel-ready’ climate technology, but can it scale up? Grist
Insurers are seeking a way to make money from your climate change travel anxiety CNBC
#COVID19
Are people getting old COVID vaccines because they don’t realize the fresh version isn’t here yet? (PDF) Dr. Mary Fernando. Canada, but I have heard the same here.
Mapping SARS-CoV-2 antigenic relationships and serological responses Science. From the Abstract: “Our results provide a comprehensive analysis of the antigenic variation between SARS-CoV-2 variants and the development of the immune response after infection or vaccination. The large antigenic effect of a small number of substitutions in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is similar to the pattern observed for seasonal influenza viruses, for which major antigenic changes are often associated with single or double substitutions. These substitutions in the SARS-CoV-2 RBD not only allow the virus to escape from preexisting immunity but also influence the regions of the spike protein that the immune response targets. Depending on their infection history, different individuals can thus be sensitive to substitutions in different regions of the spike protein. As individuals increasingly experience multiple infections [oof], choosing vaccine immunogens on the basis of immunodominance considerations may be an important aspect in ensuring high vaccine efficacy across populations with different patterns of preexisting immunity.”
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The New Normal: Delayed Peak SARS-CoV-2 Viral Loads Relative to Symptom Onset and Implications for COVID-19 Testing Programs Clinical Infectious Diseases. From the Abstract: “In a highly immune adult population, median SARS-CoV-2 viral loads peaked around the fourth day of symptoms. Influenza A viral loads peaked soon after symptom onset. These findings have implications for ongoing use of Ag RDTs [Rapid Diagnostic Tests] for COVID-19 and influenza.”
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Opinion: Sick of your kids being sick? Clean air in schools may be the answer Irish Examiner
Many in Japan Still Wearing Masks to Avoid Infection Nippon. Polling data.
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Partisan views on COVID vax harden post-pandemic Axios. Handy chart:
We’re still talking mRNA, i.e. Operation Warp Speed-derived. I don’t see how Democrats rationalize taking Trump’s vaccines; or how Republicans rationalize not taking them.
Top science journal faced secret attacks from Covid conspiracy theory group Computer Weekly. Hardly garden variety CT, given the participation of “former chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) Sir Richard Dearlove” (if indeed any spook can be said to be former).
REVIEW: Shot in the Arm (2023) Pandemic Accountability Index
China?
China calls for ‘calm and restraint’ as Israel declares war after deadly Hamas raid South China Morning Post
India
How Manipur Caught Fire The Diplomat
Syraqistan
Israel battles Hamas for a second day after mass incursion and trades fire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah AP
5 things to know about the unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel South China Morning Post
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Hamas Just Torched Biden’s Deal to Remake the Middle East Bloomberg
Iran’s support for Hamas fans suspicion it’s wrecking Israel-Saudi deal Politico
Benjamin Netanyahu warns Israel faces ‘long and difficult’ war FT. Commentary:
Unpredictable remarks from Gen. (Res.) Amos Gilad. [for decades senior security official]: “The sources of this catastrophe lie in the regime change”.
*דברים חסרי תקדים של אלוף במיל’ עמוס גלעד: מקור הכשל הוא ההפיכה המשטרית* pic.twitter.com/gmB46iYtGr
— Daniel Seidemann (@DanielSeidemann) October 7, 2023
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After Attack, Israel Wrestles With Question: How Could This Happen? WSJ
Shocking Hamas Assault on Israel Echoes 1973 Yom Kippur Intelligence Failure Spy Talk. The deck: “Questions raised on how Israel missed months of Hamas battle preparations.” Will General Van Riper please pick up the white courtesy phone? Then again:
Hamas has deep ties with Qatar and Iran. But Qatar has a gazillion American lobbyists, a global TV network and one of the biggest US military bases in the region. So you see exponentially more anger about Hamas directed at Iran and very little at Qatar.
— Lee Fang (@lhfang) October 8, 2023
It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood….
Israel’s high-tech spies and $1bn Iron Dome defences failed to stop Hamas massacring civilians in ’embarrassing failure’ The Sun (!). Commentary:
This was a stunning and massive intelligence failure in Israel. The planning for this attack was massive and intricate over months-how could they have missed it? There are two possible explanations. One is that everybody failed. The other is that Netanyahu ignored the warnings.
— Norman Ornstein (@NormOrnstein) October 7, 2023
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Uprising in Palestine New Left Review. Commentary:
It’ll take the IDF a few days to get forces staged and put a lid on it, then long term probably a ground invasion and massive bombardment – the strip is going to become another Grozny/Aleppo/Bakhmut.
— Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺 (@witte_sergei) October 7, 2023
I dunno about ground invasion; urban warfare is hard, as we know from Bakhmut and Melitopol, and the IDF is casualty-averse. But they might give it a shot:
War is all about logistics. Interesting to see a mix of American & European semis in Israel 🇮🇱 pic.twitter.com/Xy3aLzTAtw
— Man, I Love Freight 🚛 (@freightcaviar) October 7, 2023
An astonishing unravelling of a situation that’s long been forgotten, ignored, or tolerated. What next? Sky News
America’s Betrayal of Israel The Tablet
Timeline of conflict between Israel and Palestinians in Gaza Reuters. Starting 2005.
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Turkey launches fresh strikes on Kurdish targets in Syria in retaliation for Ankara bombing France24
Dear Old Blighty
Labour takes conference sponsorship from 64.5% finance firm Sqwawkbox. 64.5% APR buy-now pay-later firm.
New Not-So-Cold War
Biden considering huge ‘one and done’ Ukraine aid package The Telegraph. The deck: “Biden considering huge ‘one and done’ Ukraine aid package.” Up to $100 billion.
Panic of the proxy warriors Aaron Maté
Leo Varadkar’s Ireland has washed its hands of Ukraine The Telegraph
Are Ukraine’s Airstrikes in Russia Effective? Foreign Policy. No.
South of the Border
Battle for banana fortune rattles Ecuador presidential frontrunner FT
The Politics of Fiscal Restraint Phenomenal World
Biden Administration
Hakeem Jeffries pitches coalition governing in the House, and major changes to the rules and House Republicans push major rules change to avert another speakership humiliation Politico
2024
Trump’s lawyers lay out hush money defense strategy The Hill. IANAL, but they seem able to put together a colorable case. And he hasn’t fired them.
Drop boxes have become key to election conspiracy theories. Two Democrats just fueled those claims AP. A phishing equilibrium….
Digital Watch
AI cracking Captchas:
I’ve tried to read the captcha with Bing, and it is possible after some prompt-visual engineering (visual-prompting, huh?)
In the second screenshot, Bing is quoting the captcha 🌚 pic.twitter.com/vU2r1cfC5E
— Denis Shiryaev 💙💛 (@literallydenis) October 1, 2023
The Bezzle
The SBF trial is a reminder that crypto is a rotten business FT
Can AI Do Empathy Even Better Than Humans? Companies Are Trying It. WSJ. Lyssn.io is an AI platform:
When a woman discloses anxiety after a tough week at work, Lyssn’s chatbot gives three options the therapist could text back: “Sounds like work has really taken a toll this past week” or “Sorry to hear that, how have you been managing your stress and anxiety this week?” or “Thanks for sharing. What are some ways you’ve managed your anxiety in the past?”
Oddly, “Have you considered joining a union”? isn’t on the list.
Amazon’s Alexa has been claiming the 2020 election was stolen WaPo
Imperial Collapse Watch
You’re not going to like what comes after Pax Americana Noah Smith, Noahpinion
March of the Four–Stars: The Role of Retired Generals and Admirals in the Arms Industry Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
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‘It’s a New Aircraft — Why Is It At 55%?’: American Lawmakers Increasingly Impatient With F-35’s Poor Availability Rates Military Watch
Fake Engine Parts Found in Delta Planes as Scandal Spreads to Four US Airlines The Drive
Healthcare
The Two Words That Can Make Health Care a Nightmare New York Magazine (mv). “Prior authorization.”
Class Warfare
Walgreens pharmacy employees plan walkout at US stores, CNN reports Reuters
Kaiser Permanente workers set to end historic strike, but another may loom CBS
What’s really inside the Hollywood writers’ deal? Here’s the juicy stuff LA Times
How a fight over 2 jobs bankrupted union of 40,000 dockworkers Freight Waves
The evolution of same-sex sexual behaviour in mammals (PDF) Nature
The Greatest Invention in the History of Humanity The Atlantic
Antidote du jour (via):
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.