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Gold prices plunged to a five-week low Friday, as U.S. economic data dimmed hopes for interest rate cuts any time soon, with May non-farm payrolls surging by a seasonally adjusted 272K jobs, more than in April and well above a market consensus of 190K.
The surprising strength in the job market lowers expectations for the Federal Reserve to start easing monetary policy in the late summer and sent the dollar higher, both headwinds for gold.
Losses were compounded as the Peoples Bank of China did not add to its gold reserves in May, snapping an 18-month buying streak.
“Gold bulls felt the brunt of a double whammy on Friday,” Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity, told MarketWatch.
“Gold’s quest for new all-time peaks will likely be hampered unless markets see fresh central bank purchases along with greater prospects of Fed rate cuts,” Tan said.
“My initial thought is that China, a major driver of the gold rally in the past year, is nowhere near done buying gold,” according to Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, with the pause showing merely that it is balking at the prospect of paying record-high prices.
While China demand may be slowing, ETF demand is expected to rebound as U.S. Treasury yields fall, pushing safe haven investors into bullion, SP Angel analysts said, according to Dow Jones.
Front-month Comex gold (XAUUSD:CUR) for June delivery closed Friday -2.7% to $2,305.20/oz, its lowest settlement value since May 3, and front-month June silver (XAGUSD:CUR) ended -6.1% to $29.335/oz, its lowest since May 14.
For the full week, gold and silver fell 0.7% and 3.2%, respectively.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (NYSEARCA:GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (BAR), (OUNZ), (SLV), (PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ)
Gold should hit a new all-time high in this year’s H2, thanks to supportive central bank demand, geopolitical concerns and investor fears of missing out, according to a report this week from the Metals Focus consultancy.
Even if U.S. interest rates stay high for longer than expected, the consensus now is that rate cuts are still coming, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have further sparked gold’s rise as a safe haven, Metals Focus said.
“Later this year, we expect prices will rise again, with a new all-time high likely,” Metals Focus’ Neil Meader said. “After all, the recent $2,450 peak is lower, in real terms, than the 1980 one, which would have been around $3,000 in today’s prices.”