Tata Steel shares jump 2% to fresh record high: What’s driving the gains?

The shares of Tata Steel bucked the market weakness on Tuesday, gaining over 2% to hit a fresh record high after the company announced that the Odisha High Court has effectively quashed the state government’s demand notices worth nearly Rs 4,314 crore, related to its Sukinda Chromite Block.

The first notice dates back to July 3, 2025 when the company received a demand letter from Jajpur’s Office of Deputy Director of Mines, raising a demand of nearly Rs 1,903 crore in connection with the revised assessment of the shortfall in dispatch of minerals from Tata Steel’s Sukinda Chromite Block. The company filed a writ petition at Orissa’s High Court in August that year.

Later on October 3, the company received another demand letter worth Rs 2,411 crore in connection with assessment of shortfall in dispatch of chrome ore from the block, following which it filed another writ petition.

In the latest update to the case, Tata Steel said it believes that the High Court has quashed the demand letters issued by the authority as they are contrary to the conclusions and directions passed by the court.

Tata Steel share price

The shares of the company jumped over 2% to hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 218.24 apiece on Tuesday. The stock has gained around 12% in one month, and nearly 19% in 2026 so far. The shares of the company have rallied more than 52% in one year. In the longer term, the stock gained 100% in three years and 123% in five years.

Nomura on Indian steel sector

Meanwhile, international brokerages remain bullish on India’s steel sector. Nomura in its latest note highlighted that Indian steel prices recorded a mild correction last week, but remain near elevated levels. Despite the correction, India’s HRC spot margin in April so far has still held strong at Rs 36,700 per tonne, up by over Rs 1,580 per tonne from March 2026, remaining well above the median margin level observed over the past two years, the domestic brokerage said.

Margin expansion has been supported primarily by higher steel prices, while input costs have remained largely stable on a sequential m-o-m basis, it added. “We maintain our positive outlook for the India steel sector, and believe global factors, especially China, should have a limited impact on the earnings potential of major steel players, in our view. Our bullish stance on the India steel sector is underpinned by improving domestic price momentum despite global headwinds,” Nomura further said, maintaining its ‘Buy’ ratings for Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Lloyds Metals.

Jefferies’ top steel picks

Jefferies on the other hand said that China’s falling steel production and exports will likely lift margins of the Indian players. China’s steel exports, after hitting new record highs in 2025, have declined 9% year-on-year in the January-March quarter of 2026. “Improving steel market balance in China, driven by supply rationalization, should be positive for Asian steel spreads,” it said.

The international brokerage noted that Indian steel prices are up around 20% this year so far, outpacing the 10% rise in China’s export steel prices in the same period. This increase is supported by the implementation of a 12% safeguard duty in December 2025. “India steel prices are now broadly in-line with landed imports from China and can move higher if China’s export prices rise further. A mean reversion in Asian conversion spreads could potentially drive Indian steel prices up by a further 13% to Rs 65,800 (spot: Rs 58,000),” it added.

Assuming Indian steel prices hover in the range of Rs 55,500-56,000 in FY27-28, which is 3-4% below spot prices, Jefferies expects JSW Steel and Tata Steel to post a strong 30-45% YoY EBITDA growth in FY27. Its FY27-28 EPS estimates for the two companies are 5-28% above the Street expectations. “While a prolonged Middle East conflict could weigh on domestic steel demand and pose some downside risk to near-term earnings, we note that Tata Steel and JSW Steel’s earnings are more sensitive to price movements than volumes. A 1% decline in volumes translates into a 2% EPS impact, whereas a 1% increase in steel prices drives an 5-8% EPS upgrade,” it said.

Overall, Jefferies has a ‘Buy’ call on the shares of JSW Steel, Jindal Stainless, Shyam Metallics & Energy and Tata Steel.

Goldman Sachs’ top steel picks

Goldman Sachs called steel the “next global growth driver”. In its latest note, the international brokerage highlighted that India has the unique distinction of being the only major country in the world that both produces and consumes iron ore. “This vertical integration in iron ore begets structural competitive cost advantage and India has consistently the lowest cost of production among the major steel producing regions,” it said, listing out strong steel consumption, growth, cost competitiveness, better returns and market cap dominance as the key reasons why the Indian ferrous sector looks appealing.

JSW Steel is one of Goldman’s top picks in the sector, due to its focus on capacity growth, debt reduction and operating leverage benefits. It has a ‘Buy’ call on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,490 apiece, which implies an upside potential of nearly 19% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 1,255.70 apiece on NSE.

Goldman Sachs also has a ‘Buy’ call on the shares of Shyam Metallics due to its diversified business model, while holding ‘Neutral’ rating for Tata Steel and Jindal Steel, along with a ‘Sell’ call on NMDC due to concerns on volume growth and increasing competition.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)