On the auto sector, including names like Maruti Suzuki, Sabharwal remained positive over the long term but flagged short-term pressure from rising costs.
“Long term I am bullish and we hold M&M, Maruti and Bajaj Auto, but near-term issues remain due to input costs, especially steel.” He added that while valuations are not stretched, cost pressures and sentiment around fuel prices could weigh on demand in the near term. “Fuel price changes may not matter long term, but they impact sentiment. Near-term concerns are there,” he said.
Turning to small finance banks and NBFCs, Sabharwal adopted a more cautious tone, pointing to aggressive guidance and potential stress in lending pockets. “Guidance does not look conservative; it appears aggressive given possible stress pockets.” He stressed that in financials, asset quality is more important than headline profitability. “Profits matter less; asset quality is what drives long-term wealth creation.” He also indicated a preference for more conservative lenders in a potentially slowing economic environment.
On market structure, Sabharwal highlighted a shift in opportunity towards midcaps following a recent correction.
“Midcaps saw a sharp correction since September 2024. This creates stock-picking opportunities.” He suggested that investors should avoid broad-based bets and instead focus on selective opportunities in mid and smallcap segments. “It is better to cherry-pick midcaps and selective smallcaps now.”On sectoral themes, he preferred consumer durables as a play on seasonal demand rather than Coal India. “ACs, fans and cooler companies should do well this summer.” While acknowledging Coal India’s valuation comfort, he remained unconvinced on its medium-term appeal. “It is not expensive, but I am not a big fan of Coal India.”In the quick commerce space, Sabharwal flagged rising competitive intensity as a key concern for players like Eternal and Swiggy. “Amazon entering quick commerce could cap upside for these stocks.” He noted that profitability remains under pressure and increasing competition could limit near-term upside. “Upside looks capped for now given competition and cost pressures.”
On Sun Pharma’s recent acquisition, Sabharwal said the initial market reaction has been positive, but cautioned that large deals in the pharma sector typically take time to integrate. “The deal looks like a good strategic fit.” However, he added, “Large pharma acquisitions are rarely easy; integration takes time.” He also pointed out that the acquisition price is on the higher side, suggesting investors should adopt a wait-and-watch approach.
Overall, Sabharwal’s view suggests a market environment where macro and sectoral tailwinds remain supportive, but returns are increasingly likely to be driven by disciplined stock selection rather than broad-based rallies.
