Pharma: Numbers Improving, Select Names Preferred
When asked about the pharma sector and potential investment preferences beyond CDMOs. Aggarwal noted, “Pharma in the past, say, if you look at last 10-15 days, it has been sort of coming back and the main reason was that the market was a lot jittery at that point of time and also the pharma valuations have been relative to the valuations at which they are quoting at. However, if you look at the numbers of the past few days, the numbers have been good. If you look at particularly the MNC pharma companies like GSK or Pfizer, the numbers are quite decent and the stocks are also not expensive. But having said that, our current preference still revolves around, say, names like Sun Pharma where the numbers are okayish and if you look at the overall scenario, the pharma as a pack continues to look good.”
Speciality Chemicals: Growth Potential with PatienceOn speciality chemicals, Aggarwal emphasized a company-specific approach. “You see in speciality chemicals one has to look at from company to company. Navin Fluorine, particularly, the numbers have been pretty decent. But if you look at their future expansion plans and where the stock is currently poised, it is already trading at something like 37-38 times on FY28. But having said that, if the actual impact of this US trade deal plays out over a period of time, then there could be more growth opportunities for many of these chemical companies, but it is not something which is going to happen in a day. It will take its own sweet time.”
Currency and Operational EfficienciesAddressing currency tailwinds and operational efficiency in pharma, Aggarwal remarked, “A currency tailwind first of all one has to look at that rupee used to be 88-89 and now whether it is going back to 89 I think I am particularly doubtful about it because it is definitely not likely to go there, it might not be 92 in the immediate term.”
“Now the second part is in many of these companies I would say there is a lot of gains from stable raw material prices as also the efficiency gains. So, to that extent the numbers of many of these pharma companies they seem sustainable. One has to separate between the generic pharma companies and the companies which are having more domestic exposure because in case of many of these generic pharma companies a couple of molecules which were actually driving the sales whether it is Zydus, whether it is I believe Dr Reddy’s and also those molecules they are not likely to get benefit from that, but definitely the numbers have been pretty decent for most of the names and the valuations are not expensive at this point of time,” he added.Exchange Performance: BSE Margins and NSE Listing ImpactRegarding BSE’s recent performance, Aggarwal explained, “You see that if you look at BSE, then their profitability and margin they have improved over the quarters. But having said that the F&O segment is some bit, I would say, under pressure and the market is also not in that sort of a zone from the last, say, three months or so. So that is getting reflected in the performance of BSE because in exchanges it is highly, I would say, your operating leverage is very high which acts on both sides. So, last quarter the markets in general were very jittery. “Smallcap and midcaps were down quite a bit where BSE is also having, I would say, the bigger share because many of these older smallcap, midcaps they are listed only in BSE and also the overall sentiment actually plays out a role. So, it is just a passing phase and the things will rebound as we go along,” he added.
On the potential impact of the NSE IPO, Aggarwal added, “Difficult to say at this point of time, but if you look at global exchanges, so they actually get a valuation of 30 to 40 times very easily. So, is BSE overly expensive, that does not look at this point of time. But having said that, it will also be a function of how your NSE gets listed that is one and secondly in terms of volume you will also because once NSE gets listed, it will be listed only on BSE. So to that extent that, it will also be an advantage to BSE to some extent.”
EMS Sector: Divergence but Select Leaders Stand OutTurning to EMS (Electronics Manufacturing Services), Aggarwal observed that numbers remain volatile. “The numbers on the EMS side, as you said, they have been very volatile because the companies have been either reporting very high numbers or where there are misses also, the misses have been very significant. Now, if you look at the Amber’s numbers yesterday, the numbers were quite good and if the summer season next time also remain strong as is expected for the air conditioners, I think the Amber as such should do well,” he said.
“Even in case of Dixon the numbers were pretty strong. So, Amber and Dixon which have been there listed from quite some time, where the numbers are strong and the valuations are not as expensive, they still seem to be better placed than some of the other companies,” he added.
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