Democrats’ Hopes for the House Rely on Moderates, Not Socialists

So much attention has been paid to the socialists winning primaries this year that few people have noticed that, in the majority of competitive House districts, center-left Democrats have dominated the primaries. Radicals have won several nominations – and may win more – but not in the races most likely to determine who holds a majority in the lower chamber next year. In fact, control of the House will probably be decided in a relatively small number of suburban swing districts, many of which have establishment-backed moderate Democrats facing Trump-endorsed incumbents. Any one of the following races could tilt the balance of power this November.

A Hawkeye House of Cards

The magic number to win the majority in the House is 218 seats. Of the 38 competitive races, 18 are tossups, 12 lean blue, and eight lean red. To clinch a majority, Democrats need to win 13 tossups and secure all the seats that seem to be leaning in their direction. For Republicans to keep control, they just need to win six tossup races and hold the ones that lean in their favor.

One of these battlegrounds is in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, where former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) will, for a third time, try to unseat Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who has served in Congress since 2021. Miller-Meeks won her 2020 election by six votes, in what was one of the closest House races in US history. She defeated Bohannan in 2022 by about 20,000 votes and in 2024 by less than 800 votes. So, even though Bohannan won more than 80% of the votes to beat political newcomer Travis Terrell in the primary, she has a tough road ahead.

Iowa Republicans control all four House seats, both Senate seats, and the governor’s mansion. Still, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee sees the 1st district as a top target to flip and has high hopes for Iowa’s 3rd district, too. GOP Rep. Zach Nunn, who won re-election by four points in 2024, faces Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott, a minister and state senator broadly considered a moderate with a progressive bent. But – ahem – she made headlines in April when Fox News revealed she “discussed helping marry a Satanist couple as a minister-in-training during a love-themed storytelling event in 2023.” In the same talk, she also reportedly criticized private schools and parental rights in education. All this will surely be used against her, but she might not be Nunn’s biggest obstacle in the fall.

A new candidate entered the race for Iowa’s 1st district last month: Libertarian Marco Battaglia, a correctional officer who wants to increase penalties for violent crimes and remove criminal penalties for nonviolent drug offenses. His campaign also focuses on immigration reform, eliminating tariffs, and ending aggressive military action abroad. Whether he qualifies to run, though, is another matter. Battaglia filed a petition for his nomination, which requires more than 1,700 signatures from people in the district, yet legal challenges are in the works, as his opponents claim he didn’t reach that threshold. No Libertarian has ever won statewide or federal office in Iowa, but as a third-party candidate, Battaglia could pull votes away from the other candidates and tip the race.

Donald Trump carried Iowa’s 3rd district by more than four points in 2024 and the 1st district by almost ten. However, a recent Fox News Poll shows his approval rating is now underwater in the Hawkeye State, making the path to victory potentially a little rockier for Iowa Republicans in the fall.

A Republican Group Turns on Its Own

In New York’s 17th District, Democrats nominated the establishment-aligned Cait Conley to face the Trump-endorsed Rep. Mike Lawler. Conley, a decorated combat veteran and national security expert, is backed by the DCCC and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, who seems confident Conley can flip the seat – and he might be right. Lawler, one of the few House Republicans who represent a seat Kamala Harris won in 2024, is being bombarded by attacks over his vote for Trump’s sweeping domestic policy package, specifically the cuts to Medicaid. One labor-aligned super PAC accused Lawler of ripping “health care away from thousands of families in his one district to bankroll another round of tax cuts for the wealthy.” In the only recent poll, fielded near the end of June, Conley leads by six points.

Over in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, which Trump carried by five points in 2024, Democrat Janelle Stelson will face Republican Rep. Scott Perry in a rematch of their 2024 contest, which Perry won by about one percentage point. A moderate GOP group called Republicans Against Perry is working against the seven-term representative and has endorsed Stelson, a former television news anchor who has amassed support from some of the state’s most prominent Democrats, including Gov. Josh Shapiro, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, and several labor unions.

Perry is the former chair of the House Freedom Caucus and has held the seat since 2013, but is running in a redrawn, more competitive district, one of a few reasons why Democratic Party strategists believe 2026 provides the best opportunity to oust him. And the anti-Perry group is about to unveil a new digital ad critical of the congressman’s support of reopening the former Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Londonderry Township, a divisive issue in the commonwealth that could make or break the GOP lawmaker’s chances.

A Guessing Game

Some Democrats worry that the polarizing nominees in deep-blue districts might tarnish the party’s already-toxic brand, making it easier for Republicans to paint the more moderate candidates as far-left radicals. So far, the socialists and staunch progressives on ballots around the country have not significantly diminished Democrats’ chances of winning a majority. Across the aisle, however, Trump-endorsed Republicans may have a difficult time building a broader coalition. A recent Politico poll found that “receiving Trump’s backing provoked a stronger negative reaction from voters who are opposed to the president than a positive one from those who support him, making it a net negative for a hypothetical candidate.” In other words, Trump’s support handed candidates a boost in primaries, but in the general election, it may work against them.

Even though redistricting nationwide has reshaped the congressional map in favor of the GOP, the political environment remains in Democrats’ favor, especially with the president’s low approval rating and Republicans’ razor-thin majority. The betting market Kalshi shows the Democratic Party favored to win the House, 82% to 18%. Liberty Nation News’ polling aggregate has Democrats ahead in the congressional ballot by 5.5%. For individual House races, though, polling is sparse, so there’s no telling how the electorate may vote in these competitive races. They could go either way. Of course, the House battleground is likely to shift here and there between now and November, and as incumbents or challengers fade, some competitive races may widen, and others could fall entirely off the map. In the end, the middle will likely decide who controls the House next year: those who aren’t rigid partisans and who dislike both parties, many of whom voted for Trump in 2024. So if they don’t show up on Election Day, it may hurt Republicans more than Democrats.