MongoDB (MDB) stock tanked on March 3 after the database giant posted a market-beating Q4 but disappointing future guidance. As investors reacted to MDB’s outlook that doesn’t reflect an artificial intelligence (AI) windfall, its relative strength index (14-day) crashed to about 29, indicating extremely oversold conditions.
Versus its year-to-date high, MongoDB stock is now down about 40%, representing an attractive buying opportunity for those interested in holding it for the long-term, according to BofA analysts.
On the earnings call, MongoDB opted for transparency: “AI is not yet a material driver, but we are encouraged by the growth we’re seeing with customers leveraging our AI capabilities.”
And Wall Street analysts seem to believe it. In a post-earnings research note, Oppenheimer analyst Ittai Kidron maintained his “Outperform” rating with a $375 price target, citing AI as an “upcoming catalyst.”
According to Kidron, a “healthy pipeline conversion, improving expansion metrics, and technical leadership” could help MDB stock swiftly recover its recent losses as the year unfolds.
Kidron’s price objective signals potential upside of 45% in this software firm.
MongoDB expects its multi-cloud database service (Atlas) to grow by 22% this year — notably below the high 20% range investors have grown accustomed to — despite artificial intelligence tailwinds.
But analysts are treating it not as deceleration but rather natural progression for a maturing software firm.
“MDB has an opportunity to participate in secular trends across databases, cloud, and AI,” Brian White, a senior Monness analyst told clients in a research note.
Note that MongoDB shares sit decisively below their key moving average (MA) at writing. Still, a toned down valuation of about 11x sales could trigger a rally in the near term.
Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish on MongoDB for the remainder of 2026. According to Barchart, the consensus rating on MDB shares remains at “Strong Buy,” with the mean target of about $445 indicating potential upside of more than 75% from here.
