We came across a bullish thesis on Oscar Health, Inc. on The Analyst’s Journal’s Substack by A_Capital. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on OSCR. Oscar Health, Inc.’s share was trading at $14.87 as of January 28th.
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Oscar Health, Inc. operates as a healthcare technology company in the United States. OSCR is emerging as a compelling turnaround story within the U.S. health insurance landscape, positioning itself as a technology-first disruptor that has crossed a critical inflection point by achieving profitability for the first time in its history.
For the year ended December 31, 2024, the company reported both adjusted EBITDA and net income profitability, underscoring the effectiveness of its operational restructuring and disciplined execution. Total revenue reached $9.2 billion, representing a robust 56.5% year-over-year increase, driven by strong membership growth, improved pricing discipline, and better medical cost management.
These results mark a meaningful departure from Oscar’s earlier growth-at-all-costs model and signal a more sustainable and scalable business trajectory. Despite this progress, OSCR continues to trade at a significant discount, sitting roughly 38% below its 2021 IPO price of $35.32, suggesting the market has yet to fully reflect the company’s improved fundamentals and earnings power.
Investor sentiment, however, appears to be shifting rapidly as awareness of the turnaround builds. Data from IndMoney indicates a notable surge in interest, with search activity rising 32% in September and overall investor holdings increasing by approximately 16%, pointing to growing participation from both institutional and retail investors.
This renewed attention reflects confidence in Oscar’s differentiated technology platform, which enhances member engagement, lowers administrative costs, and supports more efficient care delivery compared to traditional insurers. With profitability established, revenue growth accelerating, and market perception beginning to realign with operational reality, Oscar Health offers an attractive risk-reward profile. At current levels, the stock presents meaningful upside potential, with a price target range of $26 to $30, implying approximately 30% to 50% upside as the market increasingly recognizes the durability of the company’s turnaround.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) by convexititties in March 2025, which highlighted ACA-related overhang fears, insider buying, AI-driven efficiencies, and long-term EPS upside. OSCR’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 3.50% since our coverage. A_Capital shares a similar view but emphasizes achieved profitability, revenue acceleration, and turnaround execution.
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