U.S. companies have received $71 billion in tariff refunds but now must combat Iran war inflation

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued $49.2 billion in refunds in June, according to the U.S. Treasury’s monthly statement, bringing total tariff refunds to about $71 billion, or more than 60% of the $166 billion available following the Supreme Court striking down tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in February.

But as companies recoup costs associated with the  import taxes they were forced to pay last year, they’re finding that, in many cases, those funds are being eaten up thanks to the impact of other economic pressures.

“We do expect some more pressure on the business from a commodity standpoint,” PepsiCo Chief Financial Officer Steve Schmitt said in the company’s earnings call last week. “We will be using the tariff, essentially the refunds, to help offset some commodity inflation that we’re seeing and allow us to continue to play offense in the business.”

The company’s CEO Ramon Laguarta said the Iran war and its impact on gas prices in particular have impacted consumer behavior, reducing discretionary spending and trips to convenience stores, which is correlated with purchases.

Marcos Gabriel, CFO of spice brand McCormick & Company, noted during an earnings presentation last month that its $31 million in tariff refunds will counterbalance higher costs. The company raised prices twice in the last year as a result of tariffs and limited freight capacity.

“I think it’s important to note that the Middle East conflict is really driving more inflation that we had not contemplated before…so we are going to use the majority of the tariff refund to offset these higher costs,” Gabriel said.

Economic impacts of geopolitical tensions

Economists have long concluded that Trump’s tariff policy was inflationary, with Goldman Sachs warning that despite IEEPA tariffs being struck down, prices will continue to be elevated in part as a result of continued levies imposed through Sections 122, 232, and 301 of the 1974 Trade Act.

But even as companies adjust supply chains and margins to account for increased tariff costs, they are finding headwinds elsewhere. While wholesale inflation fell last month as energy prices fell, Trump’s renewed attacks on Iran and reignited standoff at the Strait of Hormuz has analysts concerned prices could once again increase. Goldman Sachs’s chief U.S. economist David Mericle warned that if oil spikes above $100 per barrel as it did earlier in the conflict, monthly core inflation could increase by 3 to 4 basis points in the coming months.

Bank of America Securities analyst Steve Juneau predicted in a May 20 note to clients that oil and gas costs would remain stubbornly high, leaving tariff rebates as a way to extinguish higher freight costs.

“Importers that receive refunds will likely use the money to offset rising energy and shipping costs,” he said. “They may also offer some type of consumer relief, which surveys suggest is more likely to come in the form of slower price hikes rather than a direct benefit to consumers. Therefore, the refunds could be a modest disinflationary force ahead of midterms.”

Rebecca Homkes, a lecturer at the London Business School and faculty at Duke Corporate Executive Education, said these concerns are actualizing for many companies today.

“The difficulty is that the hits just keep coming for some of these big companies,” she told Fortune. “They get a little bit of relief from inflation, and then we get the tariff shock. We get the IEEPA ruling from the Supreme Court; we think things are going to normalize. We get all the shocks from the Iran War.”

How companies are coping with uncertainty

Companies are navigating refunds and inflation differently. Some, for example, are keeping their promises to consumers to pass rebates onto them. BJ’s Wholesale Club President and CEO Bob Eddy told investors in May that tariff refunds would help reduce consumer prices in stores by half a percent.

“We will continue to use any source of gain that we can to really bring that value back to our members so that we can build the franchise for the long term,” he said.

Other businesses are having to increase their optionality in order to assuage anxiety from their boards or investors about future geopolitical uncertainty, Homkes said. This could look like pausing spending, despite still having cash to spend, or increasing supply chain reliability.

More uncertainty is on its way, however. Beyond the Iran war, tariffs are still a top-three issue for executives, according to Homkes. The good news, however, is that today tariffs are smaller in scope—Section 122 tariffs are set to expire later this month, and Section 301 tariffs impact only a certain country of goods—meaning they are less likely to resemble the astronomical and sweeping qualities of IEEPA tariffs.

“Those days, so far, look like they won’t come again,” Homkes said.