Cardano price remains in a deep bear market, continuing a sell-off that started in December last year when it peaked at $1.3245. It was trading at $0.3565, down by ~73% from its December peak, and its lowest point since November last year. Still, the ADA price may be on the cusp of a bullish breakout as it has gotten oversold and its network metrics are improving.
Cardano Price Technical Analysis Suggests a Rebound is Likely
The three-day timeframe chart shows that the Cardano price has been in a strong downward trajectory in the past few months, with any attempts to rebound finding substantial resistance.
This decline was mostly because of the general crypto market crash that happened this year. It was also because of Cardano’s weak fundamentals like its total value locked (TVL) in the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry.
As a result, the token has dropped below all moving averages, and the important support level at $0.5140, its lowest level in February and April this year, confirming the bearish outlook.
On the positive side, there are signs that the token’s sell-off is about to end, potentially in the important resistance level at $0.5141, which is about 42% above the current level.
One key catalyst is that Cardano price has become oversold, with the Relative Strength Index falling to 27, and the two line of the Stochastic Oscillator moving to their lowest levels in months.
Additionally, the coin is approaching the important support level at $0.3056, its lowest level in July, August, September, and October last year.
Therefore, the most likely ADA price forecast is contrarian, with the next key target being at $0.5241, its lowest point in February, April, and June this year. This target is about 40% above the level.
However, the bullish outlook will be invalidated if the token drops below the key support at $0.3056.
Cardano DeFi Metric Jumps After the Midnight Token Launch
ADA price has some notable bullish catalysts that may help it to rebound in the coming weeks or months. One of them is Midnight, its side chain whose mainnet will launch in the first quarter of next year.
The developers recently launched the NIGHT token, which has been received well by market participants. Its market capitalization has jumped to over $1.3 billion and its daily volume has overtaken many cryptocurrencies.
Data compiled by DeFi Llama shows that the volume handled by decentralized exchange (DEX) networks in Cardano has jumped after the NIGHT token launch. These protocols handled over $193 million in volume this month, the highest level since January, when they processed tokens worth over $214 million.
Cardano’s DEX protocols handled over $100 million in volume in November, meaning that it will likely double this month, which is a good thing.
The network has other potential catalysts in the coming months, with the mainnet launch being the most important one.
Additionally, Cardano will launch the Leios upgrade that will dramatically increase the number of transactions per second (TPS) by introducing parallel processing. Grayscale will likely launch the ADA ETF in 2026, leading to more demand.
