David Nage, a crypto analyst, believes that the CLARITY Act could be on the U.S. Senate floor as soon as July. The bill seeks to regulate the crypto market and recently entered the Senate calendar, which sparked hopes of a full floor vote in the coming weeks.
Lawmakers & Industry Leaders Met To Discuss CLARITY Act
Nage, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Arca, noted that industry stakeholders met Senate offices and staffers in Washington for a week. Moreover, in a report, he stated that the outcome seems to be positive. He noted that although the debate continues over the CLARITY Act, much of what it sought to do is already done.
“I came home more convinced than ever of something that sounds counterintuitive, given the headlines: on the actual policy of crypto market structure, we are very close. Call it 80–85% finished,” Nage wrote.
The bill, which also passed the House and subsequently the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan votes, is now awaiting a Senate floor vote. There are a few procedural hurdles to go through, but the biggest one of them has little to do with the regulation of digital assets itself, he added.
The Ethics Debate Is At The Heart of The Matter
Nage said that the issue of stablecoin yield provisions in the CLARITY Act is over now. He described the banking industry’s opposition as a battle that has effectively run its course. However, personalities like JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon still oppose the legislation.
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“My read, reinforced by nearly every office I sat in last week, is that this fight is over, even if the lobby won’t admit it,” he wrote. Nage further added, “The staffers I met simply do not treat yield as a live obstacle anymore. The compromise even ships with a multi-agency study on deposit impact.”
Rather, the discussions are now narrowed towards ethics provisions in the CLARITY Act. Such a clause would bar government officials from benefiting from any business activity related to cryptocurrencies during their tenure.
“The sticking point is the ethics provision — the conflict-of-interest language meant to bar senior officials from profiting from the industry they regulate,” Nage said.
The disagreement has gone beyond policy issues, he added. “This is no longer a policy disagreement. It’s a political problem. Nobody around that table is actually arguing about whether senior officials should be allowed to mint tokens while in office. They’re arguing about enforcement teeth and, underneath that, about optics.”
July Vote Remains The Base Case For CLARITY Act
Nage believes that compromise might be achieved by a general limitation government officials.
“Write a clean, across-the-board prohibition on crypto business activity … that applies to the President, the Vice President, the entire senior executive branch, and all of Congress, with no names and no exceptions. Make it about the office, not the officeholder,” he noted.
His pivot base case scenario relies on settlements reaching some sort of settlement on ethics language and combining Senate versions of the bill in the coming weeks. Thereafter, he signals at a Senate floor vote for the CLARITY Act during “mid-to-late” July after the Congress returns from its recess on July 13.
However, Nage also mentioned a bear scenario. “If neither gets resolved before the recess, the practical window for 2026 closes,” he warned. The Arca exec added that “we’ll get it next Congress” could quietly become “we’ll get it next decade.” Senator Cynthia Lummis also flagged the risk that if the bill fails to pass this Congress, it could be delayed to 2030.
