Iran’s senior official reaffirmed Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and announced plans to enforce this through new legislation. Trump’s Hormuz blockade lift by May 31 sits at 78% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
Market reaction
The firm Iranian stance has traders recalibrating odds of a US policy shift. The April 19 sub-market plunged to 8% YES from 28% just a day ago, a sharp move against imminent de-escalation. The May 31 market holds higher but still dropped noticeably.
Odds on a UK warship deployment remain flat at 8.5% YES. With only 12 days left, traders are pricing in very low probability of any naval action.
Why it matters
Iran’s legislative push would formalize its control claims over the strait, directly complicating US and allied navigational plans. The $29,602 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours shows real interest, but a $1,419 order can still move the May odds 5 points, which means the book is thin. A notable 5-point drop occurred at 12:19 PM yesterday, suggesting the market reacts quickly to geopolitical headlines.
What to watch
At 22¢, a YES share on the blockade lift by April 19 pays $1, a 4.5x return. That payout only makes sense if you expect a swift diplomatic breakthrough in under two weeks. Track Iran’s legislative timeline and any UK Ministry of Defence announcements, either of which could move these markets fast.
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