Nasdaq has filed a
request with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list binary
options tied to the Nasdaq‑100 index and its smaller micro
version.
Nasdaq’s filing follows Cboe’s similar plans to offer
prediction‑style derivatives. Both exchanges are responding to
investor demand for simplified ways to speculate on short‑term
market movements. The move would allow traders to make yes‑or‑no
bets on the index’s direction, expanding event‑style
trading into U.S. equity markets.
Demand Grows for Event-Based Trading
Under the proposal, each contract would be priced between
one cent and one dollar and pay a fixed amount if the condition is met,
expiring worthless otherwise.
The structure resembles prediction‑market
contracts used on crypto platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, where prices
reflect the perceived odds of an event. While prediction‑market platforms are regulated by
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Nasdaq’s
binary options would be subject to SEC oversight.
Read more: CFTC Flags Insider Risks in Prediction Markets as Kalshi Sanctions Two Traders
Crypto companies are also advancing into the space. Coinbase
has launched prediction markets for political and economic events, and Gemini
received CFTC approval in December to operate as a designated contract market
for event‑based trading.
Joining Cboe, Coinbase, and Gemini
Cboe Global Markets is also moving into this space with its
own version of all‑or‑nothing, yes‑or‑no
style contracts that closely resemble prediction‑market bets on events. The
exchange is exploring a regulated options product that offers fixed, all‑or‑none
payouts, positioning it to compete with fast‑growing prediction platforms.
LATEST: ⚡ Cboe is developing binary options with all-or-none payouts on yes-or-no event contracts to compete with prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, according to the Wall Street Journal. pic.twitter.com/NKJPqpAVM6
— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) February 2, 2026
Bloomberg has similarly reported that Cboe plans to roll out
options that enable binary wagers on event outcomes as part of a broader push
into prediction markets, using SEC‑regulated listed contracts rather
than the lightly supervised or offshore structures common in crypto‑based
platforms.
The volumes in the prediction markets seems to be attracting
the big players. Finance Magnates reported at the start of the year that, prediction markets hit a new record with $701.7 million traded in a single day.
Kalshi led the surge, generating $465.9 million in activity,
about two-thirds of the total, while Polymarket and Opinion together
contributed around $100 million. The milestone surpassed the previous day’s record of $666.6 million,
with Kalshi keeping a dominant market share.
The strong start to 2026 builds on Kalshi’s explosive growth
last year, when the exchange processed $23.8 billion in total transactions, an
increase of more than 1,100% from 2024.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
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