By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chicken Music of the Day
Cretzschmar’s Bunting, Gaziantep, Türkiye. Cretzschmar with a “C.” These guys haven’t any logic in any respect.
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Politics
“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51
“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
“‘Very painful resolution’: How Biden selected to deliver Griner residence and depart Whelan in Russia” [Politico]. “‘As a result of nature of the sham espionage expenses Russia levied in opposition to Paul [Whelan], the Russians have continued to deal with his scenario in another way from Brittney’s and rejected every one among our proposals for his launch,’ a senior administration official mentioned. ‘It was a selection between bringing residence one explicit American, Brittney Griner, or bringing residence none.’”
2022
“Public Has Modest Expectations for Washington’s Return to Divided Authorities” [Pew Research]. Useful chart:
I’m undecided what intense tribalism plus no expectations for fulfillment is a recipe for, however I don’t suppose I’ll prefer it.
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GA: “Nearly $80 million is spent on TV advertisements for Georgia’s 4-week Senate runoff” [NPR]. Thomas Ferguson teaches us to at have a look at the cash first, so: “There was a rush of spending on TV advertisements for the pivotal Georgia U.S. Senate runoff, which is only a shortened four-week marketing campaign. In that interval, some $79 million has been poured in to purchase airtime. And spending by teams supporting Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock has greater than doubled contributions from teams backing Republican challenger Herschel Walker, in accordance with knowledge from the ad-tracking agency AdImpact and analyzed by NPR. Right here’s how the TV spending for this runoff breaks down: Professional Warnock: $54 million ($25m marketing campaign, $29m exterior teams) Professional Walker: $25 million ($10m marketing campaign, $15m exterior teams).” • After all, if cash have been the one issue, Amy McGrath can be representing Kentucky within the Senate, not Mitch McConnell. And Hillary Clinton can be President. However. And talking of losers with plenty of cash from nationwide Democrats–
GA: “Abrams’ aide says Democrat had ‘practically unattainable’ probability to beat Kemp” [Atlanta Journal-Constitution]. “[Lauren] Groh-Wargo, who was Abrams’ marketing campaign supervisor throughout her bids for governor each this 12 months and in 2018, mentioned within the collection of posts that conservative criticism of Abrams ‘poisoned her picture’ whereas the Democrat ‘leveraged her time, abilities and organizations to safe the wins of 2020’ in Georgia and different battleground states. ‘In doing so, she additionally made the 2022 gubernatorial race in opposition to a well-funded incumbent practically unattainable,; wrote Groh-Wargo, who blamed conservatives for driving Abrams’ ‘negatives sky-high’ and accused the media of framing Kemp as a reasonable for defying Donald Trump. ‘In November, the white voters who had supported (Abrams’) work in 2018 and 2020 balked at giving her the job of governor as a result of Kemp wasn’t ‘that unhealthy’ and he or she had been tarnished by the unrelenting assault,’ Groh-Wargo mentioned within the submit.” • Commentary:
For those who speak to Georgia Dems privately a lot of them say that Abrams was a foul candidate however few say so publicly. Why is that? One cause might be that nationwide donors gave Abrams and her orgs over $100 million and there aren’t some other kingmakers in Georgia.
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) December 8, 2022
Anxious to see Abrams working for President in 2024.
GA: “Scenes from a doomed Senate marketing campaign” [Politico]. “[B]eyond the scandals, the marketing campaign operation was coping with a conflict between employees and Herschel Walker and his spouse, Julie, about the right way to run issues. It’s actually commonplace for a candidate to take curiosity within the decision-making and supply enter or require some degree of accountability, however I heard related tales from numerous ranges of employees about being hamstrung, significantly by her. All the pieces from comms staffers being berated in the event that they have been seen speaking to a reporter at a rally, or employees scheduling suggestions being ignored in favor of going to areas the place they’d probably see little payoff. There’s no cause to suppose Herschel and Julie Walker didn’t imply properly, however they in all probability had little-to-no enterprise calling the pictures on a serious political marketing campaign.” However: “Walker’s marketing campaign schedule was not his undoing. It illustrates a few of his technique missteps as a political novice and gives some perception into his problematic marketing campaign operation. His downfall, as I quoted an individual very near the marketing campaign saying, was that he was unprepared to run for this degree of workplace and made every little thing tougher for himself, his employees and different allies by not being forthcoming about what was in his previous. And in conversations with these folks, a lot of them actually imagine Walker simply didn’t perceive how carefully he can be scrutinized, how brutal campaigns are, and the way damning particulars from his previous have been going to be delivered to mild both manner.” • Fascinating, too, about “Walker’s character and real curiosity in staffers and their households made him simple for them to love.” Wasn’t my image in any respect (I’ve priors about soccer, and soccer heroes). Unsure Walker can attempt once more…
GA: “Republicans Don’t Know Who To Blame For Herschel Walker’s Loss” [Vanity Fair]. “[I]n his Tuesday runoff in opposition to Senator Raphael Warnock, [Walker] delivered a far worse efficiency than each Republican candidate who ran statewide in Georgia, prompting a cascade of finger-pointing…. When all is alleged and performed, Walker’s loss to Warnock will probably work out to a few share factors––a margin that means a extra generic, much less scandal-scarred Republican may need received the race, simply as Minority Chief Mitch McConnell predicted in April. ‘How might [Republicans] screw this up? It’s truly doable,’ he mentioned of the occasion’s midterm hopes on the time. And now, after witnessing a wave of less-than-stellar performances by the GOP’s inexperienced main nominees, McConnell’s issues about poor ‘candidate high quality’ seem to have been proper on the cash.”
GA: “Some Classes from Herschel Walker’s Marketing campaign Debacle in Georgia” [The New Yorker]. “‘Herschel was like a airplane crash right into a practice wreck that rolled right into a dumpster hearth,’ the Georgia Republican operative Dan McLagan, who suggested one among Walker’s rivals within the G.O.P. main, informed the Atlanta Journal-Structure. ‘And an orphanage. Then an animal shelter. You sort of needed to watch it squinting between one eye between your fingers.’ A Walker staffer informed the identical newspaper that his marketing campaign felt like a ‘demise march.’ And but, in any case that, with greater than ninety-five per cent of the vote counted, Walker has acquired greater than 1.7 million votes, or 48.6 per cent of the whole solid. How might so many Georgians have voted for such a flawed candidate? The reply lies within the polarization of the present second; the Peach State’s demographics; and an tried rescue mission by a well-liked Republican governor…. Kemp’s late endorsement helps clarify why so many Republicans did prove for Walker once more, nevertheless it wasn’t sufficient to restore the self-inflicted injury he’d already performed….. In an setting of hyper-partisanship and all-out political warfare, particular person candidates nonetheless matter.”
GA: “OnPolitics: How did the GOP lose Georgia? Walker, Trump affect value Senate seat” [USA Today]. “‘Trump is the large loser,’ pollster Frank Luntz mentioned within the wake of the Republicans’ newest loss in a serious political race. ‘One after the other, his handpicked candidates for Senate flopped. I can’t keep in mind a time when the setting for Republicans was so good and but the outcomes have been so unhealthy.’”
2024
“Trump hosts Mar-a-Lago occasion with outstanding QAnon, Pizzagate conspiracy theorist” [The Hill]. “Liz Crokin, a former journalist and movie star gossip author now related to far-right conspiracy theories, spoke at a fundraiser meant to fight baby trafficking, in accordance with posts on her Telegram account. On the occasion, Crokin mentioned she mentioned Pizzagate, a debunked conspiracy idea suggesting Hillary and Invoice Clinton and different political elites run a baby intercourse trafficking ring at a pizza store in Washington. She additionally mentioned the style firm Balenciaga, which has lately taken warmth for a photograph marketing campaign that includes youngsters and plush bears with BDSM equipment. Trump, who final month declared himself a 2024 presidential candidate, made an look on the occasion. ‘You might be unimaginable folks and doing unbelievable work,’ he mentioned in a video shared by Crokin. ‘We simply respect you being right here and I hope you’re going to be again.’” • How unusual that we’re not seeing any liberal Democrats dashing to Balenciaga’s protection.
Republican Funhouse
“Kevin McCarthy faces debt-limit dilemma as Home GOP ratchets up calls for amid speaker bid” [CNN]. “Home Republicans are plotting techniques for his or her new majority and weighing the right way to use their leverage to enact a laundry listing of calls for, with many zeroing in on a difficulty with monumental financial implications: Elevating the nation’s borrowing restrict. aIt’s a difficulty confronting Home GOP Chief Kevin McCarthy, who’s rounding up the votes to win the Home speaker race and going through strain from a few of his colleagues to extra forcefully element how he plans to deal with the delicate subject earlier than they determine whether or not to help him on January 3 for essentially the most highly effective place in Congress. In interviews with CNN, greater than two dozen Home GOP lawmakers laid out their calls for to keep away from the nation’s first-ever debt default, starting from new immigration insurance policies to imposing deep home spending cuts. And a number of other Republicans flatly mentioned they’d oppose elevating the borrowing restrict even when all their calls for have been met, making McCarthy’s slender path even narrower. ‘I’m a no, it doesn’t matter what,” Rep. Tim Burchett, a Tennessee Republican, mentioned of elevating the debt ceiling.” • So Democrats ought to abolish the debt ceiling. After all, they received’t. For one factor, they’ll fundraise off the cuts.
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, in actual fact, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Get together is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Get together fails to manipulate, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the potential to manipulate. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Get together reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not completely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.
Word, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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“Hakeem Jeffries and the Railroad Employees” [Black Agenda Report]. “The Black Agenda Report crew is proud to have coined the phrases “Black misleadership class” and “Black political class.” These phrases can’t be uttered and written too actually because they title and disgrace the individuals who work alongside the neoliberal and imperialist order in america whereas additionally pretending to behave on behalf of Black folks, whose wants are antithetical to these of the oligarchy. Congressional Black Caucus member Hakeem Jeffries is the Black politico of the second and his rise is a cautionary story which have to be adopted carefully…. If Biden needed the railroad employees to have sick days, there was a easy technique to go about doing that. He might simply signal an govt order. In 2015 Barack Obama signed such an order requiring all federal contractors to offer paid sick time however railroad employees have been particularly excluded. All Biden has to do is signal a brand new one which requires that railroad employees be included on this rule… Jeffries loves the theater as a lot as the remainder of his colleagues. Taking a knee in any respect the suitable photograph alternatives whereas serving the pursuits of police or the Israeli state or railroad barons made him the right candidate for a management place. Nancy Pelosi’s time was up. A brand new face was wanted, a youthful face, and sure a Black one from an enormous metropolis. Who higher to present the impression that change was afoot when it truly wasn’t. Jeffries will probably be prepared the subsequent time his companies are wanted to crush employees or do one thing else that the ruling class requires of him. The Black first is all too usually an individual who’s co-opted or who is just formidable and is aware of the right way to play the sport.” • Yep.
#COVID19
Lambert right here: Eric Topol has known as a winter surge (or “wave”) of Covid. I’m however a humble tapewatcher, however I’m reluctant to take action. (Partly as a result of I do know my temperament, and I’ve robust priors. So “I received’t as a result of all of me desires to,” as Sam Spade says.) Topol’s view is the institution view: Hospital-centric. Mine is infection-centric. I don’t see the acceleration or doubling in instances that I might anticipate to see primarily based on previous surges. Granted, Boston (wastewater) is accelerating New York (hospitalization) is rising, they’re good knowledge, they usually might be main indicators (which is why I selected them). They may be flashes within the pan. (Maybe I must take a rigorous have a look at wastewater, as for instance in San Francisco (charts take eternally to load).) So we’ll see. Let’s wait and see what the rest of the vacation season brings. Reader dialogue on this essential level is welcome. However–
Keep protected on the market: Excessive transmission (CDC), the elevation of positivity (Walgreens), the regular takeover of BQ.1* (CDC; Walgreens), together with elevated hospitalization in BQ.1* hotbed New York, plus a wastewater surge in Boston are all greater than a bit unsettling (as is the obvious proliferation of variants). As one may anticipate in the beginning of a vacation surge, wastewater in Queens County, NY (JFK/LGA), Cook dinner County, IL (ORD), and Los Angeles County (LAX) continues to be elevated. If you’re planning to journey on Xmas, do contemplate your plans fastidiously.
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• Nonetheless in humble tapewatcher mode, let’s assume that wastewater is an effective proxy for actual case numbers (see subsequent hyperlink). Right here is Biobot’s chart of wastewater and scientific instances from the start of the pandemic:
(NOTE I don’t run Biobot recurrently as a result of I don’t like their unexplained backward revisions. However “assume”). If we glance solely at wastewater (the blue curve) we see would assume that scientific case numbers at the moment are, and have been for some months, roughly at a plateau, and actually on the similar degree as each peak earlier than Biden’s climactic, Omicron-driven peak of December 2021, because the gray “Fauci line” reveals. And now the curve is rising.
For all of the peaks as much as March 20, 2022, scientific case numbers and wastewater tracked very carefully. Now they now not do; they’ve radically diverged. I’d must dig into why, however I’m undecided it’s residence testing, as a result of residence check kits have been out there in 2021. It is likely to be that Administration messaging modified. “Airways, journey teams ask Biden administration to drop Covid testing earlier than worldwide flights” (CNBC, February 2, 2022). “States Lead the Approach to ‘New Regular’ With Biden Administration Mum on Coronavirus Steerage” (US Information, February 10, 2021). “The politics of attending to the subsequent part of the coronavirus pandemic” (NPR, February 17, 2022). “Are we actually performed with masking?” (CNBC, March 2, 2022). “Nationwide Nurses United ‘outraged’ over CDC’s rolled-back masks steering” (Could 17, 2022). Maybe, of their totality, the administration’s transfer to “Let ‘er rip” messaging additionally conveyed to the general public that Covid was, certainly, “only a flu.” Therefore, no scientific instances. (It’s additionally costly and harmful to become involved with the well being care system.)
• ”Citywide wastewater SARS-CoV-2 ranges strongly correlated with a number of illness surveillance indicators and outcomes over three COVID-19 waves” [Science of the Total Environment]. From the Summary: “Right here, we current an 86-week lengthy surveillance examine that covers three main COVID-19 surges. Metropolis-wide SARS-CoV-2 RNA viral masses in wastewater have been measured throughout 39 wastewater remedy vegetation and in comparison with different illness metrics for town of Houston, TX. We present that wastewater ranges are strongly correlated with positivity charge, syndromic surveillance charges of COVID-19 visits, and COVID-19-related basic mattress use charges at hospitals.”
• And nonetheless in humble tapewatcher mode, one other CDC chart I don’t run recurrently as a result of it’s complicated. CDC explains the right way to learn it: “If extra space on the chart is shaded mild or darkish blue, it means virus ranges have been lowering at extra websites at that cut-off date. If extra space on the chart is shaded pink or orange, it means virus ranges have been rising at extra websites at that cut-off date”:
(The info is smoothed over 15 days.) On the backside of the chart, you’ll discover that the variety of websites in pink — these with giant will increase in virus ranges — has the sort of accelerating curve I’m involved about. Nevertheless, on the prime, you’ll discover a black line dropping precipitously: That is the variety of websites sampled. So, simply when we have to have the most effective knowledge, our pattern goes unhealthy (thanks, CDC). For those who go all the way down to the map within the Wastewater part, additionally, you will see that the big variety of websites — gray dots — that aren’t sending knowledge in any respect (thanks once more), in addition to huge swathes of the nation within the South, the border states, the plains states, and the mountain states that aren’t sending knowledge in any respect (thanks as soon as extra).
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• ”BC Hasn’t Discovered A lot from the Pandemic” [The Tyee (C.O.)]. “The COVID-19 Classes Discovered Evaluate, an operational evaluate of the provincial authorities’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, was submitted to Public Security Minister and Solicitor Normal Mike Farnworth on Sept. 23…. For all its strengths, Classes Discovered has some obvious omissions. Charlie Smith, former editor of the Georgia Straight, posted outcomes on his Substack of a phrase search he’d performed on the Classes Discovered report: not as soon as does it point out phrases like ‘airborne,’ ‘mind harm,’ ‘cardiovascular’ and ‘extra mortality.’ ‘Lengthy COVID’ will get one passing point out. But we now have identified for a very long time that COVID-19 is an airborne heart problems that causes mind harm and different results in individuals who contract even “gentle” instances. (I would add that the report, like the federal government, makes use of “restrictions,” a pejorative time period, when “protections” would have been extra correct.)” • Another for Bonnie Henry’s file. (I preserve making jokes concerning the Hague Tribunal, however I ponder if there’s actually a idea of the case.)
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•ª ”Jenna Ortega Had COVID Whereas Filming Her Iconic Wednesday Dance Scene” [Teen Vogue]. “Understandably, the revelation has shocked many viewers, who’ve voiced their criticisms on-line.” • Good. A bit crack within the wall of propaganda. It’s not unattainable.
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• Maskstravaganza:
Masking up is a threat/profit calculation. For those who’re younger, wholesome, up-to-date in your vaccinations and you are not nervous about lengthy Covid, it might be affordable to unmask. However for those who’re medically weak or round people who find themselves, or nervous, you may need to regulate. 2/
— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) December 6, 2022
This pyscho has no idea that threat to others may enter into his calculation. From his bio, Frieden is — as one may anticipate — a “Former @CDCgov director and @nycHealthy commissioner.” And the kicker: “Centered on saving lives.” Nicely, no. The rot within the (hegemonic) PMC goes very, very deep.
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• “A bug I simply can’t shake”:
skilled biologist colleague, re the continued illness of her personal baby (when i additionally requested about strep wave tbf considerably)”It is due to the [‘immune defecit’] with the lockdowns”..I did ask has your dr mentioned any of that, or simply the politicians?”simply.. folks say” ..
— Gregor Rayne EUW (@GregorRayneEUW) December 7, 2022
Psychological laziness as a type of denial?
“Why We’re All Forgetting Issues Proper Now” [Wall Street Journal]. From April, nonetheless germane. “We’re residing in one more second of huge change as we return to places of work, create new routines and discover our footing in one more new regular. (And don’t overlook a scary struggle in Europe on prime of that.) All this alteration consumes cognitive power, usually rather more than we predict, neuroscientists say. It’s no surprise we will’t keep in mind what we had for breakfast. Our minds are scuffling with transition moments…. The power and cumulative stress of the previous two years has taken its toll, too…. The deluge of data coming at us on a number of channels is cluttering our brains, too…. Then there’s the sameness of our lives through the pandemic. How are we supposed to recollect a selected occasion when every day was precisely the identical as each different?” • Completely no point out of neurological injury from Covid, even from gentle instances, and particularly from repeated infections. ‘Tis a puzzlement!
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Transmission
Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission (the “pink map”). (That is the map CDC desires solely hospitals to have a look at, not you.)
Lambert right here: The powers-that-be don’t even see transmission as an issue, clearly. However you may!
• “L.A. County going through a full-blown coronavirus surge as instances double, deaths rise” [Los Angeles Times]. “Los Angeles County seems within the midst of one other full-blown coronavirus surge, with instances doubling since Thanksgiving. The spike — which partially captures however probably doesn’t absolutely mirror exposures over the Thanksgiving vacation — is prompting more and more pressing requires residents to rise up to this point on their vaccines and contemplate taking different preventive steps to stymie viral transmission and extreme sickness. Additionally on the rise is the variety of coronavirus-positive sufferers being cared for in hospitals, sparking issues about renewed stress on the area’s healthcare system and elevating the specter of an indoor public masks mandate if the tendencies proceed, presumably shortly after New 12 months’s Day.” • Why on earth is an “indoor public masks mandate” a “spectre”? What’s flawed with these folks? (In the meantime, I’ve been yelling about LAX wastewater for awhile; right here’s affirmation.)
Positivity
From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, revealed December 5:
0.9%. Distinct slackening (keep in mind, this knowledge is smoothed). Then once more, because the gray Fauci Line reveals, we’re on the similar degree at the moment as we have been within the final peak (besides in fact this time the pandemic is “over”).
Wastewater
Wastewater knowledge (CDC), December 4:
JFK/LGA, Queens County continues to be pink; ORD, Cook dinner County is orange; LAX, Los Angeles County now pink. I might guess that speckling of pink in Utah is sky nation. Keep protected when travelling.
December 3:
And MWRA knowledge, December 5:
Lambert right here: Reducing.
Variants
Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant knowledge is. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC right here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, educational tempo totally incompatible with defending your self in opposition to a variant exhibiting doubling habits.
NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), November 19:
Lambert right here: BQ.1* dominating. XBB arising on the skin.
NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), November 12 (Nowcast off):
BQ.1* transferring alongside fairly briskly. Word the looks of XBB, and see the highlighted observe: Like BQ.1*, XBB seems immediately when CDC decides to disaggregate the info. Precisely as with CDC’s notorious “inexperienced map,” a lag is launched, this time by CDC’s decision-making course of; Walgreens had XBB final week, however CDC has it solely this week. I don’t see what objective the aggregation serves. If the problem is a jillion low-circulation variants would make the desk impossibly lengthy and complicated for customers, that’s a UI/UX challenge; deal with it with software program. Have a slider/filter that aggregates variants underneath 1%, say. Permit scrolling the outcomes. No matter. However cease concealing knowledge!
New York/New Jersey (Area 2) numbers are larger. BQ.1.* is dominating:
• As a verify, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization, up to date December 6:
Lambert right here: I see a seamless enhance, however not acceleration.
Deaths
Demise charge (Our World in Knowledge):
Whole: 1,108,815 – 1,107,794 = 1021 (1021 * 365 = 372,665 deaths per 12 months, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must determine that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness).
It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like every little thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.
Stats Watch
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Retail: “How you can Take the Friction Out of Commerce | Case Examine” [Business of Fashion]. “In bodily shops, retailers within the US alone collectively lose greater than $30 billion yearly because of lengthy queues, in accordance with a 2018 estimate by Adyen, a monetary expertise platform. On-line, the issues are much more pronounced. Baymard Institute, which conducts analysis on the consumer expertise (UX) of e-commerce websites, estimates that on-line retailers within the US and EU lose round $260 billion in orders because of their checkout movement and design. And Baymard just isn’t the one one to place a billion-dollar price ticket on the issue. Coresight Analysis, an advisory agency specialising in retail and expertise, lately discovered that US on-line retailers are dropping between $111 billion and $136 billion in gross sales because of a less-than-optimal checkout. A part of the problem stems from manufacturers and retailers failing to optimise for shifting procuring behaviours. Even earlier than pandemic lockdown restrictions drove e-commerce’s phenomenal progress, shopper patterns have been already clear. Now, for instance, a great deal of procuring takes place throughout gaps within the day, when persons are between duties and shopping on their telephones or laptops. Would-be prospects can simply be interrupted by emails, cellphone messages or their bodily setting and may grow to be pissed off with having to fill out too many fields or create an account to make a purchase order. The excellent news is that even small enhancements in measures like conversion charges and common order values can have a significant influence when multiplied throughout 1000’s or hundreds of thousands of shoppers. To succeed, retailers are turning to instruments and companies that assist them clean the trail to buy.”
Tech: “Texas turns into newest state to ban TikTok on authorities gadgets” [Axios]. “A rising variety of GOP-led states are barring state workers and contractors from utilizing TikTok on government-issued gadgets because the FBI warns of doable threats to nationwide safety posed by the Chinese language-owned social media platform. Texas turned the newest to take action on Wednesday, becoming a member of South Dakota, South Carolina and Maryland, all of which banned the app on authorities gadgets up to now week. Wisconsin Republicans are urging their Democratic governor to do the identical. ‘[U]nder China’s 2017 Nationwide Intelligence Legislation, all companies are required to help China in intelligence work together with knowledge sharing, and TikTok’s algorithm has already censored matters politically delicate to the Chinese language Communist Get together,’ Texas Gov. Greg Abbott mentioned in a letter to state officers Wednesday.” • As a result of youngsters as of late, all they care about is the Yellow Peril.
Tech: “Pentagon splits $9bn cloud computing contract amongst tech giants” [Financial Times]. “Amazon had accused Trump of placing strain on the Pentagon to “screw” its founder, Jeff Bezos, and award the contract to its rival due to the previous president’s private animus. Oracle had claimed the single-vendor contract was unfair, whereas Google had withdrawn its bid in 2018 following a employees outcry for working with the DoD.” • “Inform your mates I don’t need lots. Simply sufficient to moist my beak. Don’t be afraid to inform them!” –Don Fanucci, Godfather II.
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As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 60 Greed (earlier shut: 59 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 69 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 7 at 1:37 PM EST.
Xmas Pregame Festivities
“110 Distinctive Merry Christmas Needs to Write in a Card” [Good Housekeeping]. • Feed this to ChatGPT.
Photograph Ebook
“Trying to find Saul Leiter” [FlakPhoto]. “I used to be late to the sport when it comes to Leiter. My first expertise along with his work was in 2006 when Lisa Hostetler staged an exhibition of his shade images on the Milwaukee Artwork Museum. Leiter’s winter image was within the press package, and I used to be instantly hooked. I liked its painterly qualities and the way it appeared like a dream. I come again to this image usually and solely lately observed that Saul seems to have wiped a number of the condensation from the window earlier than making the picture. Discuss seeing!” • Many photos from Leiter, and sources.
Our Famously Free Press
“The free encyclopedia that anybody can edit“:
The concept that Wikipedia is an open encyclopedia maintained by a decentralized community of hundreds of thousands of volunteers world wide, is generally a fable.
In actuality, the overwhelming majority of edits are made by a core group of round 3,000 very lively editors. 🧵 https://t.co/BafG4nybc2 pic.twitter.com/tUIYD1K71e
— skilled hog groomer (@bidetmarxman) December 7, 2022
And:
It’s thus unsurprising that Wikipedia’s information to supply trustworthiness offers full grades to NED cutouts like Bellingcat and RFA, however deems impartial journalism important of US empire, like Venezuelanalysis, Telesur, The Digital Intifada, and The Grayzone as untrustworthy. pic.twitter.com/ozugCwcAiZ
— skilled hog groomer (@bidetmarxman) December 7, 2022
Well being Care
“Limits of ‘Fauci impact’: infectious illness candidates plummet, and hospitals are scrambling” [STAT]. “The shortage of medical doctors getting into ID fellowships — and the following scarcity of those specialists — has been a priority for years, with consultants pointing to the comparatively low earnings these physicians make as a serious disincentive for medical doctors contemplating which subject to enter. However this 12 months’s numbers marked a backslide. Totally 1 / 4 of accessible positions went unfilled. Among the many fellowship applications, 44% didn’t fill their slots, in accordance with knowledge from the Nationwide Resident Matching Program. ‘You’ll be able to’t sugarcoat it, are you able to?’ mentioned Lisa Chirch, the ID fellowship director at UConn Well being.” • Arduous work, decrease pay, and (speculating freely) promotion blocked by reactionary mossback droplet goons. Who wants it?
Zeitgeist Watch
“Axios End Line: Rise of kinless older Individuals” [Axios]. “There’s a rising inhabitants of seniors who’re growing old alone — with none shut household round them. There are practically one million Individuals over the age of 55 residing with out a partner or a accomplice, any youngsters or siblings. That’s as a result of boomers have decrease marriage charges than their mother and father did, and extra of them have remained childless. On prime of that, the divorce charge amongst {couples} who’ve crossed 50 has risen Charges of kinlessness are projected to develop as generations youthful than boomers are even likelier to be growing old alone. Kinless older of us are much less more likely to take part in group teams, sports activities or spiritual organizations — actions that stimulate the physique and the mind. And so they’re much less more likely to obtain the care and assist across the residence that they want. Because of this, kinless older adults die sooner.”
“The Individuals Cheering For Humanity’s Finish” [The Atlantic]. “From Silicon Valley boardrooms to rural communes to educational philosophy departments, a seemingly inconceivable thought is being significantly mentioned: that the tip of humanity’s reign on Earth is imminent, and that we should always welcome it. The revolt in opposition to humanity continues to be new sufficient to look outlandish, nevertheless it has already unfold past the fringes of the mental world, and within the coming years and a long time it has the potential to rework politics and society in profound methods…. The primary is Anthropocene anti-humanism, impressed by revulsion at humanity’s destruction of the pure setting…. Transhumanism, against this, glorifies a number of the very issues that anti-humanism decries—scientific and technological progress, the supremacy of cause. But it surely believes that the one manner ahead for humanity is to create new types of clever life that may now not be Homo sapiens.” • I don’t use the phrase “demise cult” that always, however maybe I ought to begin. The precise perspective we should always anticipate from The Atlantic: “It’s simpler to think about the tip of the world than the tip of capitalism.” –Mark Fisher, Capitalist Realism: Is There No Different?
Talking of demise cults:
Offended birds miniature golf course and hooked up bakery pic.twitter.com/0Wtt6TUZpq
— @lonestar on cohost (@LonestarTallBoi) December 7, 2022
Class Warfare
“Unique: Delta provides pilots hefty pay raises as unions flex bargaining energy” [Reuters]. “Delta Air Strains (DAL.N) has supplied a 34% cumulative pay enhance to its pilots over three years in a brand new contract, demonstrating the bargaining energy aviators are having fun with in a short-staffed business with booming journey demand.” • Journey demand and enterprise travellers.
Actual shortage within the Congo:
There is not sufficient meals for everybody, in accordance with 54-year-old Pelagie Ngayabaseka. She spoke as scores of younger youngsters gathered round her and surrounded her, saying, “If you do not have the power to combat, you will not get something.”
— Gurbaksh Singh Chahal (@gchahal) December 8, 2022
Right here, the shortage is synthetic. The specified outcomes are the identical.
“Analysis Letter: Affiliation between lengthy COVID signs and employment standing” (preprint) [medRxiv]. n = 15,307. “: Lengthy COVID was related to a higher chance of unemployment and lesser chance of working full time in adjusted fashions. Presence of cognitive signs was related to diminished chance of working full time.”
Social capital:
A full Socialist social calendar, circa 1913: a Thanksgiving occasion, sandwiched between dance classes and a celebration for the Northside left-wing baseball crew (the Reds, in fact). pic.twitter.com/82GiHoaUX3
— Pink Pittsburgh (@redpghblog) November 24, 2022
Information of the Wired
“Driver Trapped for Extra Than 300 Miles on Freeway After Cruise Management Breaks” [The Drive]. • Nice metaphor.
“This American weight loss plan might add 10 years to your life” [National Geographic]. “There’s one other American weight loss plan, one that might truly enhance your life expectancy by as much as 10 years and, in some instances, reverse illness. It’s not a fad weight loss plan invented by a South Seashore physician, a paleo weight loss plan marketer, or a social media influencer. This weight loss plan was developed by unusual Individuals, is extensively reasonably priced, is sustainable, and has a decrease carbon footprint than a meat-heavy weight loss plan. Most essential, it’s hearty and scrumptious, developed over centuries by fusing flavors from the Previous and New Worlds in ingenious and uniquely American methods…. We begin in New England, wanting on the conventional meals of the Wampanoag Native Individuals…. Although the Wampanoag hunted recreation and picked up mussels and oysters, 70 % of their weight loss plan got here from plant sources…. Chinese language American ladies residing in Hawaii take pleasure in about 90 years of life expectancy, and the weight loss plan of Chinese language Individuals residing there helps such longevity. (Need to dwell longer? Affect your genes.) Since Southeast Asians started arriving in Hawaii over 170 years in the past as agricultural employees, every ethnic group has launched its personal flavors and elements. The Chinese language introduced leafy cabbage, soybean merchandise, and teas. The Japanese, miso and their very own model of tofu. The Filipinos, tender suggestions of many vegetation similar to squash and pumpkin. This melding of meals and cooking strategies has made Hawaii the place to expertise Asian fusion delicacies that’s primarily plant primarily based…. African Individuals residing within the Deep South have a protracted custom of consuming blue-zones-type meals. What started as a largely plant-based West African weight loss plan morphed with native Native American and European influences to supply a singular and vividly scrumptious delicacies. Dietary surveys going again to the Nineties point out that almost all meals eaten by southern African Individuals have been greens and grains. Apart from salt pork added for taste, animal merchandise performed a minor position.” • “Eat meals. Not an excessive amount of. Largely vegetation.” –Michael Pollan.
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Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From EM:
EM writes: “Right here we now have Mushrooms rising along with Raspberries and Strawberries. You’ll be able to see the mychrozial community for those who look carefully. It’s a Lion King-esque circle of life.”
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So for those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:
Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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