Socrates & The War | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: Marty, I know you taught Socrates how to analyze rather than what. I remember you saying it checks every possible avenue, because you cannot predict what might replace fossil fuels as an energy source in the future. I really am amazed, and I can see why they tried to get you to turn over the code. For nothing on this planet has been able to forecast this Iran war so accurately, right up to the ceasefire and its collapse this week, even with Socrates having a Directional Change.

COVID sent many companies into bankruptcy. Spirit Airlines is reportedly facing potential liquidation as early as this week. The airline is struggling with rising fuel costs and ongoing bankruptcy issues, which have significantly impacted its financial stability. When I looked at the various airline stocks, they, too, are targeting June onward.

Is this what Socrates is doing, checking also the industries dependent on energy that this war has created a crisis?

Robert

PS: Do you think if we all wrote to Trump, he would bring you into that Situation Room to save our country and the world?

ANSWER: Yes, Socrates is correlating so many things that no human analyst could possibly match in 5 minutes, which would take weeks of manual work. I taught it how to analyze. I did not create a neural net and hoped it would figure it out on its own. That approach is why IBM sold Watson for scrap. I cannot explain completely. I did my best to incorporate my personal experiences and knowledge of analysis.

This war is an absolute disaster in so many ways, from economics to geopolitics. Perhaps if everyone wrote a letter to Trump, enough might be able to circumvent the Neocons. Who knows? Yet, behind the headlines, Iran is the largest oil reserve in the world. The Iranian people are certainly among the most educated in the world.

From a youth literacy standard, Iran ranks 9th in the world, with a youth literacy rate exceeding 99%, closing the gender gap and placing it above many developed nations. This is a dramatic increase from 36% in 1979. Ironically, the Islamic Revolutionary Government has educated its youth. When we look at how Iran ranks among countries with Science & Engineering graduates, it ranks 2nd globally, with 31% of its university students in science and engineering fields. Iran’s education system excels at producing literate youth and a high volume of university graduates, particularly in science and engineering.

What our sources are showing is that Netanyahu is single-handedly destroying the image and support for Israel. The polling in the USA of Israel has collapsed among the youth, and this is hitting Congress very hard.  Those who once supported Israel are becoming critics. Every Democrat in the Senate who has their eye on a presidential run in 2028 voted against arms sales to Israel. Thus, some 40 Democrats in the Senate voted to block arms sales to Israel. That has jumped from just 15 last year. In the House, some Democrats are also turning their back on Israel, which was the lunatic fringe 5 years ago.

The holdouts are the Evangelicals and older Republicans living in yesterday. Nevertheless, support for Netanyahu among the American public has significantly eroded, reaching new lows in 2025 and continuing into 2026. A major April 2026 poll by Pew Research highlights this shift, with 59% of U.S. adults now saying they have little or no confidence in Netanyahu to “do the right thing regarding world affairs.” This is a notable increase from 52% in 2025. Only 27% of Americans express trust in his leadership. Overall, favorable views of Israel have also dropped. 60% of U.S. adults now hold an unfavorable view, up from 53% in 2025. In 2022, favorable views stood at 55%.

This negative sentiment is most pronounced among Democrats. Approximately 80% of Democrats now view Israel unfavorably, and 76% lack confidence in Netanyahu. The 58-point partisan gap in Netanyahu’s favorability is the widest ever recorded. I wrote in the Special Report, The Fate of Israel, that even the USA will eventually abandon Israel because of Netanyahu.