Consensus Estimates
Metric
Q2 FY2026 Estimate
Q2 FY2025 Actual
YoY Change
Revenue
~$4.10B–$4.20B
$3.95B
+4–6%
EPS (Diluted)
~$29–$32
$28.29
+2–13%
Gross Margin
~53–54%
53.86%
Stable
Analyst consensus: Strong Buy (19 analysts). Average price target: $4,274 vs. current price of $3,882.
Key Metrics to Watch
1. Domestic Same-Store Sales (Most Important)
Same-store sales growth has been the single most watched metric for AutoZone. After decelerating to low single digits in recent quarters, the Street wants to see if volume has troughed. A print above +3% domestic comps would be considered a positive surprise. Any acceleration in the commercial (DIFM — Do It For Me) segment, which has been outgrowing DIY, is the key driver to watch.
2. Commercial Program Momentum
AutoZone’s commercial business is its long-term growth engine. Watch for:
– Commercial sales as a % of total domestic sales (currently approaching ~30%)
– Mega-hub store count expansion — these drive commercial program density
– Average weekly commercial sales per program
3. Gross Margin
Gross margin has been under modest pressure from product mix shift (commercial skews lower margin vs. DIY) and supply chain costs. The question is whether the company is holding the ~53–54% gross margin range or seeing incremental compression.
4. International — Mexico & Brazil
International has been a relative bright spot. Mexico continues to grow store count and comps at a healthy clip; Brazil is earlier in its development but worth monitoring. Watch for total international comparable store sales and new unit openings.
5. Share Buybacks & Remaining Authorization
AutoZone is famous for aggressive share repurchases — it has reduced its diluted share count from 23M+ (FY2021) to 17M today. The pace of buybacks and remaining authorization signals capital allocation priorities heading into the back half of FY2026.
Scenario Analysis
Scenario
Revenue
EPS
Same-Store Sales
Stock Reaction
**Bull**
>$4.2B
>$32
Domestic comps +4%+
+4% to +8%
**Base**
$4.1B
~$30
Domestic comps +2–3%
Flat to +2%
**Bear**
<$4.0B
<$29
Domestic comps flat or negative
-3% to -6%
Bull case: Domestic DIY demand holds up better than feared, commercial continues to take share, Mexico delivers strong comps, and management raises FY2026 guidance or signals acceleration. Stock has already risen ~3.4% on March 2 ahead of results, suggesting some pre-earnings optimism.
Base case: Revenue grows in the low single digits consistent with Q1 FY2026 trends, commercial continues to outperform DIY, margins hold roughly flat, and management maintains cautious-but-stable guidance.
Bear case: DIY traffic stays soft as consumers delay discretionary vehicle maintenance, commercial growth disappoints, or gross margin compresses further from mix. Any tone suggesting macro headwinds for the auto aftermarket could put pressure on the multiple.
Catalyst Checklist
1. Domestic same-store sales vs. +2–3% consensus — the single most important line. Beats here move the stock more than any other metric.
2. Commercial program growth rate — is the DIFM flywheel still accelerating? Street wants to see >15% commercial sales growth.
3. Gross margin vs. 53.5% consensus — a miss here combined with weak comps is the double-negative scenario.
4. FY2026 guidance tone — AutoZone rarely gives formal guidance, but management commentary on the demand environment and new store opening cadence sets the narrative.
5. Buyback pace — did they accelerate repurchases while the stock traded at a relative discount earlier in the quarter?
Context: Recent Trends
AutoZone’s revenue growth has decelerated sharply over the past two years:
– Q2 FY2024: +4.6% YoY
– Q2 FY2025: +2.4% YoY
The slowdown reflects softer DIY demand as consumers pulled back on discretionary spending and the post-COVID surge in vehicle maintenance normalized. However, the aging U.S. vehicle fleet (average age now over 12 years) and macro tailwinds from deferred maintenance create a favorable backdrop for a demand recovery in the second half of calendar 2026.
The stock closed at $3,882 on March 2, 2026, up 3.4% — near the lower end of the analyst price target range of $3,550–$4,800. A strong print today could put the $4,100–$4,300 analyst targets back in play.
Earnings call begins at 10:00 AM ET. Follow AlphaStreet for live transcript coverage and post-earnings results analysis.
Source: StockAnalysis, AlphaStreet Earnings Calendar. Estimates as of March 3, 2026. Consensus figures are approximate and subject to revision.
