Iran war makes Middle East peace prospects better long-term

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while the Iran war poses near-term risks, it may ultimately improve the prospects for lasting peace in the Middle East.

“I think the Iran war makes it a better chance in the long run — it’s probably riskier in the short run, because we don’t know the outcome of it,” Dimon told Palantir executive and former Congressman Mike Gallagher at a conference held in Washington, D.C.

The key shift, according to Dimon, is a convergence of interests among regional powers. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, the U.S. and Israel all want permanent peace, he said, adding that Persian Gulf states in particular have shown a willingness to move in that direction.

“The attitude is not what the attitude was 20 years ago,” Dimon said. “They all want it.”

The conflict began last month when the U.S. and Israel launched hundreds of strikes on Iran, including one that killed the country’s supreme leader. The war has reverberated through global markets as oil prices surged because of supply disruptions. While stocks climbed Monday after President Donald Trump said in a social media post that the sides had talked about a “complete and total resolution” to the war, Iran denied that talks were happening.

Dimon, who leads the world’s largest bank by market cap, also tied his contrarian Middle East view directly to economics, arguing that the region’s need for foreign direct investment — which had been flowing into Gulf nations for years — will dry up without stability.

“They can’t have neighbors lobbing ballistic missiles into their data centers,” he said.

In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon touched on a range of topics, from the impact of artificial intelligence on the workforce to stablecoins and the bank’s new global headquarters in New York. But issues of national security and geopolitics took center stage.

The U.S. needs to “get our act together” when it comes industries that are key to national security, Dimon said, noting it was part of his motivation for creating a $1.5 trillion initiative last year.

“I am deeply frustrated … about our own policies in America, which set us back,” Dimon said, citing the inability to manufacture enough munitions as an example.

“We’ve become like Europe, we’re unable to move and change, change budgeting, change procurement,” he said.

The U.S. government and corporate sector “made a huge mistake” dealing with China over the past few decades, including by becoming dependent on critical components from the nation, Dimon said.

He added Americans should assume that conflict may one day arise over China’s desire for Taiwan.

“We should acknowledge [China has] done some things magnificently well,” including building batteries, cars, drones and ships, Dimon said. “We should look at our own shortcomings, and then be prepared, if they ever become an adversary, to face off against them.”

Winning the wars in Ukraine and Iran “would be very helpful” in dealing with China, Dimon added.