Kevin Warsh, chairman of the US Federal Reserve nominee for US President Donald Trump, during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee confirmation hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Odds that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as chairman of the Federal Reserve in less than a month from now surged on prediction markets platform Kalshi after the Department of Justice said Friday it was dropping its inquiry into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Bettors on the platform now see an 86% chance that Warsh’s nomination is approved by the U.S. Senate by May 15, and a more than 97% chance that happens by June 1.
Before the probe into Powell was dropped on Monday morning, bettors placed the chance of confirmation by May 15 at about 30% odds.
The end of the inquiry meets a key demand of Sen. Thom Thillis, a North Carolina Republican. While he said he supported Warsh for the role of Fed chair, he said he could not vote to advance the nomination until the criminal investigation into Powell ended.
Tillis sits on the Senate Banking Committee, which will need to vote to send Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate. If Tillis voted against advancing Warsh’s nomination, that would block his chances of making it to the Senate floor if all Democrats on the committee also opposed the selection by President Donald Trump.
While the probe ending today likely clears the path for Warsh’s candidacy to make it out of committee, Tillis has not made an official statement since the inquiry was dropped. CNBC has reached out to his office for comment.
Bettors, though, think the news is an all clear signal. On Polymarket, bettors now place a similar 81% chance Warsh is confirmed by May 15, and 98% chance by June 1.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.
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