Mortgage Rates Today, Monday, January 12: South of 6%

It’s not a big enough dip to really make a difference, but mortgage interest rates are lower today.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 5.91% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is nine basis points lower than yesterday and five basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Though this wasn’t much of a move, if you’re shopping for a home or thinking about refinancing, this might be a sign to start following rates a bit more closely. Even if rates aren’t necessarily going down each day, you might feel more ready to make your move if the overall trend is downward.

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

This week the Nerds will be keeping an eye on December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow. This provides a snapshot of inflation — controlling inflation is one of the Federal Reserve’s main priorities when setting the overnight borrowing rate (which banks pay to fund home loans, influencing the mortgage rates they set).

The Fed’s other main priority is reducing unemployment, and the Dec. jobs report was just released this past Friday. The data is a mixed bag: The U.S. added 50,000 jobs last month, which is below economists’ projections of 73,000, according to a Wall Street Journal poll. However, unemployment also fell to 4.4%, after months of increases going back to August (with the exception of October, where we don’t have data due to the government shutdown).

Several leaders from the Federal Reserve are also scheduled to speak this week, including five of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee. This will provide further insight into how central bankers might vote at their Jan. 27-28 meeting, as they often like to telegraph their interpretations of major economic data.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.41% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.