Mortgage Rates Today, Monday, June 22: A Little Higher

Mortgage rates are up today as markets continue to respond to the Federal Reserve’s updated economic projections. With the possibility that borrowing costs may increase further before year-end, mortgage rates remain under upward pressure.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.39% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is six basis points higher than Friday and 24 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its policy decisions are highly influential. For more on the Fed’s announcement and what it could mean for mortgage rates, keep reading below the chart.

Average mortgage rates, last 30 days

🤓 Kate on Rates: June 18, 2026

📈 What influences mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

Last week’s Federal Reserve meeting was the first of the Kevin Warsh era, and markets are still trying to digest everything that happened — and everything that didn’t happen. Yes, the Fed didn’t change the federal funds rate, but that was completely expected and definitely wasn’t the headline news coming out of this meeting.

Backing up for a second. In his confirmation hearings and at other speaking engagements, Warsh made no secret of his belief that the central bankers, and the chair in particular, talk too much. He had also expressed dislike for the Summary of Economic Projections, particularly the ‘dot plot’ which shows the bankers’ expectations for the federal funds rate.

And indeed, Warsh declined to participate in the dot plot. (Seeing 18 dots rather than 19 implied this was the case, but he confirmed this during the press conference.) Another significant change was the Fed’s official statement which was notably shorter than had been the norm and which dropped the “forward guidance” that’s usually included.

Then there was Warsh’s press conference, where he laid out some of his plans for the Fed (five task forces to take on areas of concern) and declined to answer any questions he felt were asking him to make a prediction, or even speak to a hypothetical. It’s also unclear what the cadence of future press conferences will be.

What does all this have to do with mortgage rates, you ask? Markets like to know where the Federal Reserve is headed, whether that’s toward rate cuts, hikes, or staying the course. Even if they aren’t thinking about it directly (though if you’re focused enough on mortgage rates to be reading this, you likely are), this stuff also informs consumers’ decisions.

Some level of transparency is expected, and we did get that with the SEP. Unfortunately for mortgage rate watchers, the dot plot implied we could get a rate hike by the end of this year, with the median expectation for the funds rate rising just above its current level. What we could see wasn’t terribly optimistic — and the SEP was most of what we had to go on.

Even if the Fed is stepping aside from offering much in the way of prediction, we can still look at the same data they do and attempt to draw inferences. We’ll have the chance to do that Thursday when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE. It’s May data, and Warsh made the point that the Fed should be working with more recent numbers. (Yes, one of his task forces will focus on data.) But PCE is also the Fed’s favored inflation measure, and it’s a data point markets can use to try to figure out where the central bankers are going, even if they don’t want to say.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.89% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

🔒 Should I lock my rate?

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.

🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

About the author

Abby Badach Doyle has been writing about homeownership and mortgages for NerdWallet since 2022. Her work has been featured in outlets including The Associated Press, The Washington Post and The Seattle Times. From interactive tools to practical advice, Abby is passionate about making the homebuying journey less stressful — especially for first-time buyers.

As a reporter, she is interested in writing about innovative housing solutions (like co-living) and personal stories about how homeownership builds community and a sense of belonging.

Abby is also a musician, songwriter and producer who knows the challenge of balancing creative fulfillment with financial stability. In 2024, she produced a special episode of NerdWallet’s “Smart Money” podcast on how to navigate income swings in a creative career.

Abby is based in Pittsburgh, a city defined by working-class grit and neighborly spirit. When she’s not writing about personal finance, she’s at her urban homestead: playing fiddle, raising chickens and preserving the bounty from her garden.

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