The race for the next Fed Chair continues to heat up, with Rick Rieder now leading market expectations. Rieder, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, has surged ahead after public praise from President Donald Trump. This shift in sentiment follows Trump’s direct meetings with finalists, as Jerome Powell’s term ends May 15 and a nomination decision nears.
Fed Chair Odds Shift Toward Rieder
As per Polymarket data, Rieder currently leads nomination odds at 57.5%. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh follows with 29%, while Christopher Waller holds 6.8%. Kevin Hassett odds are at 6%, suggesting slimmer expectations among traders.
Source: Polymarket, Fed Chair odds
Trump confirmed the candidate pool has narrowed. Speaking to CNBC from the World Economic Forum in Davos, he said the list dropped from 11 names to “maybe one.” Trump also described Rieder as “very impressive” following a recent meeting.
As CoinGape reported, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump may announce the Fed Chair as early as next week. The timing could coincide with the January FOMC meeting scheduled for January 27 and 28.
Policy Differences and Powell’s Imminent Exit
However, policy stance has become central to the selection. Powell has maintained a higher-for-longer approach to eliminate remaining inflation pressure. The federal funds rate is currently between 3.5% and 3.75% after December rate cuts.
Rieder has taken a different position in public remarks. He has argued that the neutral rate is closer to 3%. This view places him apart from Powell and aligns with Trump’s Powell criticism of the current pace of rate reductions.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady this month. Officials cut rates three times last year, easing immediate policy pressure. Even so, the Fed Chair choice remains closely tied to future rate direction.
Rieder’s Background and Crypto Comments
Beyond policy views, Rieder manages approximately $2.4 trillion in assets at BlackRock. His role requires time to time monitoring of yield curves, credit spreads and liquidity conditions tied to monetary decisions. Rieder has previously commented on Bitcoin’s role in markets. In 2021, he described Bitcoin as “interesting” and durable over time.
Scrutiny around the Fed has intensified as DOJ is investigating Powell’s Senate testimony. Grand jury subpoenas were sent to the Federal Reserve, while Powell said the inquiry appears politically motivated.
Meanwhile, narrowing candidates, changing market odds and policy contrasts define the Fed Chair race. Rieder now leads prediction markets, holds Trump’s public endorsement and is under focus ahead of a possible announcement. The process continues as Powell’s term approaches its May conclusion.
