In the past twenty-four hours, the US and Iran have entered into a further round of escalation in the Hormuz area, sending the price of oil (Brent crude) to $76. The current round of attacks reportedly began when the Iranian Revolutionary Guards fired on three tankers that tried to exit the Strait of Hormuz on the southern side, in territorial waters of Oman.
In the past, before the US and Israeli campaign in against Iran in February-March this year, ships would transit the Strait of Hormuz on the northern side, through Iranian waters. Now, however, the Iranians are forbidding ships to pass without permission and without payment. The Iranian government seeks to collect $2 million from each tanker, a move that could bring in some $10 billion annually, and the alternative channel is liable to reduce the revenue stream that it is trying to establish.
Beni Sabti, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies, explains that the Iranians’ current perception is that they are able to squeeze more out of the US in the negotiations between the two countries. “They are floating trial ballons by firing on the ships. In their view, no-one is supposed to pass through the strait without their approval. All of a sudden, the Omani channel opened up, allowing free passage to everyone. In the eyes of the Iranians, this represents breach of a contract with them. In their view, the whole of the strait and the Gulf of Oman is under Iranian jurisdiction. So they are creating what we had between Israel and Syria in the previous decade, a war between wars.”
Alarm in the Gulf
The Gulf states are highly alarmed, and not just Bahrain and Kuwait, which are again sustaining all the Iranian attacks. In June, as tensions eased and both Iranian and US strikes diminished, the aggregate exports of oil by Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq exceeded ten million barrels a day, over three million barrels more than in May. The recovery is, however, only partial, as the quantity is 40% less than before Operation Roaring Lion.
The current escalation catches President Trump in a bad position. He attended the NATO summit in Ankara with eyes on the US mid-term elections in November.
Yaki Dayan, formerly Israeli consul in New York, says that there is no doubt that the US has no interest in a war of attrition, and seeks to hold serious negotiations. For their part, the Iranians are aware of Trump’s timetable, and his desire to avoid a renewed flare-up in the Middle East before the mid-term elections, especially after he succeeding with the aid of the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran in returning the oil price to where it was before the war.
“The mid-term elections are absolutely at the top of Trump’s priorities,” Dayan says. “The administration does not want the situation to deteriorate into all-out war. Will war resume? Maybe, but that is certainly not the Americans’ preference. The main question is whether Trump’s advisers will succeed in their task of preventing him from attacking.”
Today, speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump is reported to have said of the memorandum of understanding with Iran under which the two sides are supposed to conduct negotiations for sixty days: “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them. They’re scum. They’re ?sick people. They’re led by sick people. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them.”
Published by Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – on July 8, 2026.
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd., 2026.
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