Today (June 2) sees primary races in six states: Iowa, New Jersey, Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota, and California. That last one is drawing all the attention as we prepare to find out who will compete in November to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom as governor of the Golden State. There’s another California race that seems to be getting even more attention, though. Spencer Pratt, now endorsed by President Donald Trump, is challenging incumbent Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. The City of Angels hasn’t seen a Republican mayor since Richard Riordan, who held the position from 1993 until 2001.
The gubernatorial race will be decided on Nov. 3 – a contest between the top two vote-getters. That’s regardless of party affiliation in this open primary, so two Democratic candidates could be competing. Former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra is the front-runner, with another Democrat, billionaire Tom Steyer, close behind. However, Steve Hilton, a British-American conservative political operative – running as a Republican – is snapping at Becerra’s heels and well-placed to lock out Steyer.
Despite years of financial dumpster fires in California, such as an appallingly mismanaged high-speed rail project and the newly uncovered fraud scandals, Gavin Newsom seems oddly immune to any significant backlash from voters – to the point where he is up there on the list of Democratic 2028 presidential hopefuls.
That means Becerra may not have Newsom’s failures hanging around his neck in November. Californians might be quite content to hand him the keys to the governor’s mansion. Hilton, on the other hand, represents a different direction entirely. So, it will come down to whether the voters are content to stay on the current path or not.
The RealClearPolitics average of polls (June 1) has Becerra at 24.6%, Hilton at 23.3%, and Steyer at 21%. Could California see its first Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger? Perhaps, in the Trump era, anything is possible.
Mayoral Hopes of Spencer Pratt Hang in the Balance
Spencer Pratt is also vying for at least a second-place finish in the mayoral race, which would put him in a runoff. But this race is not a primary and could be decided on June 2. If one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, it’s all over.
A UC Berkeley-LA Times poll, conducted at the end of May, has Spencer Pratt trailing both Bass and progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman. Bass was at 26% among likely voters and Raman was at 25%. Pratt, who has surged in recent weeks, trails at 22%. That’s no lost cause for the Republican, to be sure, as it does appear the race is destined for a November showdown.
The fact that Steve Hilton and Spencer Pratt are doing as well as they are suggests Californians – the ones who haven’t given up on the state altogether – are looking for change. But it is California, so change may mean giving a different Democrat a shot at righting the ship. Pratt is, by Golden State standards, a hardline right-winger, with pledges to crack down on crime and homelessness.
Assuming he can edge out Raman for second place – that is, of course, if he doesn’t pull off a surprise outright victory – Spencer Pratt might have a better chance of becoming mayor of Los Angeles than Hilton has of winning the gubernatorial race. The latter will not be running against an incumbent saddled with a horrible record, while Karen Bass faces a referendum as she vies for re-election – and, by any standards, regardless of political persuasion, the prognosis cannot be good.
When the day is over, though, no one may be any the wiser as to who the winners and losers are. California is barely any faster at counting ballots than it is at laying rail tracks. So, there is the very real possibility that neither the LA mayoral race nor the gubernatorial primary is called for another day or two.
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