Iran’s chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz remains firmly in place, but global oil markets could nearly eliminate their dependence on the contested waterway in a few years.
Despite more than a week of daily bombardment, the U.S. military has failed to secure an alternate corridor through the strait that bypasses Iran’s approved route, as the regime’s drones and missiles scare away commercial vessels.
On Friday, no crossings via the U.S.-backed route were detected, and no “shadow fleet” movements were recorded either, while Iran’s channel saw seven transits.
U.S. assurances have been insufficient. The military said over marine radio that “U.S. forces are prepared to maintain freedom of navigation and safeguard lawful commerce in accordance with international law. The southern route of the strait remains open.”
But one seafarer replied, “F— off,” according to a recording reviewed by the Wall Street Journal.
India has barred any Indian crew members from participating in transits through the strait until further notice, after an Iranian attack killed a sailor. Similarly, the chair of the Japan Foreign Trade Council said the strait is a no-go zone to commercial ships while the fighting continues.
Before the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, about 20 million barrels of oil traveled through the Strait of Hormuz each day.
Its closure by Iran produced the world’s biggest ever oil shock, but the markets scrambled to find work-arounds that helped soften the blow. More ships went “dark” to sneak through the strait undetected, and oil stockpiles were heavily tapped.
Supplies were also diverted via land-based routes, especially Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline. Both countries have used rail corridors as well.
Thousands of trucks have also been ferrying crude from Iraq to Syrian ports on the Mediterranean coast. In fact, Syria now handles more than a quarter of Mideast volumes after shipping none just months ago.
Meanwhile, Kuwait is in talks with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to get its oil out of the Persian Gulf via expansions of its neighbors’ pipeline systems.
More throughput is on the way.
The UAE has fast-tracked its new West-East pipeline, which is already 50% done and could come online early next year, according to Kpler. That will be on top of added capacity to its Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, while Saudi Arabia is bulking up its East-West pipeline.
A consortium that includes Chevron is looking at rebuilding the pipeline from Kirkuk in northern Iraq to the Syrian port of Baniyas on the Mediterranean, after it was damaged in the Iraq war two decades ago.
And Turkey has proposed extending the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline south to the Iraqi port of Basra on the Gulf coast, creating another Mediterranean export channel that slashes dependence on Hormuz.
Analysts from Goldman Sachs estimated in a note last week that enough Mideast pipeline capacity will likely be added to insulate over 45% of pre-war Gulf exports by the end of next year.
By the end of 2028, the figure could rise to more than 60%, with an “accelerated scenario” pushing it to 75%.
Goldman put median construction time for pipeline projects in the region at 2.5 years, “with construction typically occurring more rapidly in response to supply disruptions.”
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