What to Expect From Trump’s Prime-Time Address

President Donald Trump will make a prime-time address to the nation this evening (July 16). While speculation on the purpose and thrust is, as always, rife, we can be reasonably sure that alongside the latest on Iran, the commander-in-chief will offer a major pitch in favor of election reform.

The Prime-Time Pitch

The advantages of a prime-time address are significant. It’s an opportunity for the president to speak – largely uninterrupted – to everyone in the country. Certainly, various outlets will add ongoing commentary, and more than a handful will do real-time “debunking.” But rather than snippets in prepackaged deliverables, Trump will get his version of a fireside chat.

The SAVE America Act has become more than just another string in his policy bow. It is on the verge of being his legacy obsession. He refused to sign a bipartisan housing bill until the election integrity legislation was passed. And although it became law anyway, it indicated that Trump was willing to burn a whole lot of Rome to get his fiddle solo.

And here’s the main point: America agrees with him.

Both Sides Be Damned

As has been repeatedly explained, the public is literally 80% behind the key tenets of the SAVE Act: that is, showing a photo ID to cast a ballot. Slightly fewer, but still a huge majority, want proof of citizenship to register for the vote in the first place. And yet the Senate seems unable to muster the numbers required to pass this bill.

There are almost certainly some valid reasons why lawmakers might balk at the full SAVE package – it’s a rare congressperson who doesn’t stuff just a little bit of pork. And yet, congressional politicians do not seem to be looking for a solution.

The latest development is that aspects of voter integrity issues will be included in the usually bipartisan defense spending package through “Reconciliation 3.0.” This particular package is often one of the least contentious and rarely has much difficulty passing. But already, chatter about a potential partial government shutdown ahead of the key midterm elections in November is getting louder.

And it looks increasingly likely that President Trump is ready to embrace it.

Who Loses?

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is already framing the potential funding lapse as the “Trump Shutdown”; getting ahead of a narrative is generally a winning move. But what happens if the president flips the script entirely and argues that he accepts the moniker? What if he makes the case that election integrity and trust in “free and fair” elections are more important than politics? Well, that puts both parties in a tricky position.

Republicans are already under pressure to ditch the filibuster and get the SAVE Act over the line. If they did, there would be the usual gnashing and wailing but almost certainly no shutdown right before the midterms. Conversely, Democrats would be painted as obstructionists to something that four-fifths of the country supports.

Trump may end up without the Washington, DC, trifecta during his last two years in office, but, in reality, he is already likely to be in that situation regardless of what happens with the SAVE Act. History doesn’t favor the majority in midterms. And, of course, Trump is more than comfortable using a pen, a phone, and a Truth Social account to run the country.