Kalshi odds of Elon Musk winning his case against OpenAI surge after private notes reveal for-profit intent

Key Takeaways

Kalshi reports a 68% probability for Elon Musk’s lawsuit success against OpenAI after new evidence emerged.
OpenAI documents reveal internal discussions about shifting to a for-profit model, sparking legal tensions.

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The odds that Elon Musk will win his lawsuit against OpenAI have jumped to 68% on prediction market Kalshi following the release of new court filings suggesting OpenAI leadership contemplated a for-profit pivot earlier than publicly acknowledged.

At one point, Musk’s winning chances approached 72% as investors reacted to the revelations in the filings.

The documents, submitted by Musk’s legal team, include a section titled “Brockman’s Personal Files,” containing previously private diary entries from OpenAI co-founder and president Greg Brockman.

In the notes, Brockman appears to acknowledge internal plans to transition the organization away from its nonprofit mission.

In a November 2017 entry, Brockman wrote that the team could not honestly claim a long-term commitment to the nonprofit structure, stating, “If three months later we’re doing b-corp then it was a lie.”

Other entries reveal tension between OpenAI’s stated mission and financial ambitions, with Brockman questioning, “Financially, what will take me to $1B?” and later conceding that “it would be nice to be making the billions.”

Brockman also anticipated that a for-profit shift would spark a “very nasty fight” with Musk and noted discomfort operating out of office space then controlled by Musk.

Following the unsealing of these documents, OpenAI responded with a blog post titled “The Truth Elon Left Out,” disputing Musk’s interpretation.

The company argued that Musk himself supported a for-profit structure in 2017 but sought majority equity and unilateral control, which the other founders rejected.

OpenAI also contended that Brockman’s diary entries reflect private brainstorming after negotiations with Musk broke down, rather than evidence of a covert plan to deceive him from the outset.

Musk’s evidence bolstered his standing in the legal fight.

A federal judge ruled yesterday that his lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft can move forward, citing claims that the company breached its nonprofit mandate by accepting Microsoft funding and planning for-profit activities.