XRP’s retreat toward $1 is testing whether one of the cryptocurrency market’s largest tokens can hold a level that has become increasingly important after months of declining prices.
Data from CryptoSlate shows that the digital asset fell to $1.02 on Friday, its weakest price since February, as a market-wide selloff prompted traders to reduce exposure to digital assets.
XRP recovered slightly afterward, but the rebound did little to dispel concerns that the decline may be entering a more damaging phase.
However, these Strains are emerging across several parts of the market. Leveraged positions are disappearing, derivatives activity has contracted, and investors who once waited for a recovery are increasingly moving their holdings at a loss.
The shift has left XRP caught between two possible outcomes. Clearing speculative positions could reduce the risk of another liquidation-driven decline.
But without stronger demand from spot buyers, the withdrawal of traders may leave the token with little support if it falls below $1.
Liquidations accelerate the retreat
The latest wave of selling gathered pace after XRP dropped toward $1.07 on Wednesday, triggering about $9 million in long liquidations, CryptoQuant data show. It was the largest daily loss for leveraged bullish traders since Feb. 5.
Binance accounted for roughly half of the total, with about $4.5 million in XRP long positions closed on the exchange.
Long liquidations occur when falling prices reduce the value of collateral backing a leveraged bullish position. Exchanges then close the trade automatically, adding another sell order to an already declining market. When several positions are concentrated around similar price levels, that process can accelerate a downturn.
The liquidations contributed to a wider reduction in outstanding XRP derivatives positions. Open interest on Binance fell to approximately $205 million, its lowest level since March 22. The measure tracks contracts that remain active rather than those already settled or closed.
Bybit recorded a similar pullback. XRP open interest on the exchange declined to about $185 million, returning close to levels last seen on June 6.
The parallel declines across two of the largest venues suggest that traders were reducing exposure throughout the derivatives market rather than responding to conditions on a single exchange.
The contraction also indicates that some investors closed positions voluntarily as prices weakened, while others were forced out through liquidations.
Across tracked exchanges, total XRP open interest has fallen to about $2.34 billion. Futures turnover has weakened even more sharply, dropping to roughly $2.84 billion from more than $30 billion during the comparable period last year.
That represents a decline of more than 90% in trading volume, reflecting how much speculative activity has disappeared since XRP attracted heavier participation in 2025.
Open interest and futures volume measure separate aspects of derivatives activity. Open interest represents the value of positions that remain outstanding, while volume measures the contracts traded over a specified period.
The simultaneous weakness in both measures shows that fewer traders are maintaining positions and less capital is circulating through the market.
The reduction could make XRP less vulnerable to large chains of forced liquidations. It could also signal that traders have lost confidence in the prospect of a near-term recovery.
Investors Accept Losses at Fastest Pace Since 2022
The retreat is no longer confined to leveraged traders.
A growing proportion of XRP investors are moving their tokens below their acquisition prices, pushing a key measure of realized profitability to its lowest level in almost four years.
Glassnode data show that XRP’s 90-day moving average profit-to-loss ratio has fallen to 0.33, the weakest reading since August 2022. The metric compares the value of profits recorded when tokens move on-chain with the value of realized losses.
A reading of 0.33 means investors are realizing roughly one unit of profit for every three units of losses. Ratios above 1 indicate that profitable transactions dominate, while figures below that threshold show that investors accepting losses account for the larger share of activity.
The latest reading signals an intensification of capitulation, a term used to describe periods when holders abandon positions after enduring an extended decline.
Such episodes can help markets establish a floor by transferring assets from investors eager to sell to buyers willing to hold through further volatility. They can also persist for long periods when demand remains weak, meaning the indicator alone cannot establish that XRP has reached a bottom.
The deterioration reflects how quickly market conditions have turned against investors who accumulated XRP at higher prices. Each move lower places more of the token’s supply in an unrealized loss, increasing the risk that holders will sell during temporary rebounds to limit further damage.
That creates an additional obstacle for a sustained recovery. Even if the latest liquidations remove vulnerable leveraged positions, XRP may encounter selling from investors seeking to exit close to their entry prices whenever the token attempts to rebound.
Risk-Adjusted Momentum Remains Negative
Returns generated by XRP have also failed to compensate traders for the volatility required to obtain them.
CryptoQuant’s risk-adjusted trend indicator for XRP on Binance shows that the token’s 30-day Sharpe ratio has declined to minus 0.29. The measure compares an asset’s return with the level of risk investors assumed during the period.
A negative Sharpe ratio indicates that XRP delivered a loss after accounting for its price fluctuations. Investors were exposed to volatility without receiving a positive return in exchange.
The token’s Sharpe Z-score has fallen to about minus 1.57, showing that its recent risk-adjusted performance is substantially weaker than its historical average. Seven-day Sharpe momentum also remains negative at approximately minus 0.09.
The readings suggest that recent recovery attempts have lacked enough strength to alter the prevailing trend. They also help explain why traders may be reluctant to rebuild positions after being liquidated or closing contracts.
Investors considering a new position face an asset that has produced weak returns while retaining the possibility of large price swings. Until that relationship improves, the decline in open interest may continue to reflect reduced appetite rather than a temporary reset before another advance.
One derivatives indicator offers a more neutral signal.
Binance’s XRP perpetual-to-spot volume imbalance stood near 0.51, while its 30-day Z-score was approximately 0.17. The figures show that perpetual futures continue to account for a large portion of trading activity, but the imbalance remains close to its average over the past month.
The result suggests that derivatives positioning is no longer unusually stretched compared with recent conditions. During XRP’s rallies in April and May, perpetual activity rose more rapidly than spot trading, widening the gap between the two markets. That difference narrowed as prices fell and speculative activity declined.
The near-neutral reading may reduce the likelihood that an extreme imbalance alone triggers another sudden liquidation event. It does not show that spot demand has strengthened enough to support a recovery.
Broader Market Decline Removes Support
XRP’s capitulation is unfolding as investors withdraw from cryptocurrencies across the market.
Bitcoin briefly fell to about $58,100 on Thursday, its lowest level since September 2024, before recovering toward $60,000. Ethereum continued to underperform, falling toward $1,550 and extending its decline for a third consecutive day.
The total value of the cryptocurrency market also slipped below $2 trillion after Bitcoin’s fall toward $58,000, erasing billions of dollars from digital assets and leaving many tokens near their weakest levels of the year.
Market breadth has deteriorated sharply. Of 85 non-stablecoin assets examined by CryptoRank, 87% declined in June while only 13% advanced. The average asset lost 8.6%, and the median return was minus 12.3%, indicating that the weakness extended well beyond a handful of major tokens.
Only two of the 10 largest non-stablecoin assets remained positive during the second quarter. Hyperliquid’s HYPE led with a gain of 72.6%, driven largely by a June rally that briefly lifted its quarterly return above 100%. Tron’s TRX followed with a 4.1% advance.
The rest remained in negative territory.
That broad decline reduces the possibility that investors will rotate capital from other cryptocurrencies into XRP.
During stronger markets, traders may treat a sharp fall in a large token as an opportunity to buy at a discount. In a market where most assets are declining, preserving cash often takes priority over seeking rebounds.
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