The Ukrainian currency has been a perpetual short since 1998, and nothing has changed since. The central bank tried to fix the currency in 2022 when the war began. Our models could easily forecast precisely when the war would begin, for there was a massive outflow of currency in advance. Yet, I posted that the war cycle turned up in 2014, which marked the beginning at the 2011 World Economic Conference, and later I posted that the model had targeted Ukraine in 2013.
Zelensky actually confessed to the Washington Post that he knew when Russia would invade but refused to warn the people, claiming it would have cost him $7 billion because capital would have fled. Our models clearly picked up massive capital outflows ahead of the start of the war confirming that advance knowledge existed. It appears that was the money of Zelensky and friends moving money out based on inside information while he refused to tell the people on advance. That would have been a crime in the United States.
There is evidence of a significant financial and economic exodus from Ukraine in the lead-up to February 24th, 2022. While comprehensive data on capital flight is not available insofar as identifying the specific individuals without searching accounts in offshore havens. Zelensky purchased a $5 million property in Egypt under his mother-in-law’s name, Olga Kiyashko. His aids apparently stole $75 million from US funds.
The weeks before the invasion saw several distinct forms of capital and asset flight. For example, on February 13th, 2022, a reported 20 private jets and charter planes departed from Ukraine, carrying some of the country’s wealthiest businesspeople and oligarchs. This was a clear, visible sign of the wealthy moving their assets and themselves out of the country on insider information.
The flight of capital was also evident in the global financial markets. The prospect of war led to a “flight to safety,” where investors moved money out of riskier assets into safer havens like the U.S. dollar. Specifically, Ukraine experienced investor flight, its currency (the hryvnia) came under severe pressure, and its central bank’s reserves were being rapidly depleted as it tried to stabilize the currency.
In the days before the invasion, dozens of Western diplomats and their families were EVACUATED from Kiev. This was accompanied by international insurance companies announcing they would stop covering flights over Ukraine from February 14th, which led to a near-total closure of Ukrainian airspace as commercial airlines canceled flights. This made it physically difficult for anyone to leave the country, accelerating the panic. If you had a private jet, that was the only way out of town.
This pre-war flight of capital and talent contributed to a rapidly growing financial crisis for Ukraine. The European Commission noted that the financial “financing gap” for Ukraine, the amount of money it needed to function, more than doubled from €2.5 billion to €5 billion due to the investor flight and economic pressure caused by the Russian troop buildup before the invasion even began.
The capital controls were implemented on February 24th, 2022, to prevent any citizen from doing what Zelensky and friends were doing on inside information. Zelensky admitted to the Washington Post that he knew in advance and did not warn the people. The capital controls were implemented only when the war began.
Their primary purpose was to stop a complete financial collapse by preventing the remaining capital from fleeing the country as the full-scale war began. The operation of the foreign exchange market was suspended, except for the sale of foreign currency by customers. They also implemented a moratorium on Cross-Border foreign currency payments, effectively preventing money from being transferred abroad.
Cash withdrawals from client accounts were limited to UAH 100,000 per day, and the release of cash in foreign currency was prohibited entirely. Even the National Securities and Stock Market Commission also introduced restrictions on transactions on capital and organized commodity markets starting at 11:00 a.m. that same day to prevent market collapse.
People who were skeptical about how we could forecast where and when the war would begin simply have to comprehend that someone ALWAYS knows in advance and money and assets as ALWAYS moved in advance. We may not be able to nail it down to a specific person without access to the accounts where the money is transferred, but we can forecast such events with capital flows in addition to our cyclical models. There were multiple indicators pointing to a sharp increase in capital leaving the country before the invasion.
