POWER POINT
What I’m hearing from energy insiders
U.S. oil just topped $90 a barrel and Brent crude passed $100 a barrel.
A number of new factors could mean this crude comeback has legs.
For example, what happens if all Iranian oil suddenly went offline?
It’s an outlier thought. Maybe it’s crazy. While we can’t all agree on much, can we at least agree that maybe now is the exact right time for crazy, outlier thoughts?
Before I get to that, here’s a quick synopsis of where we stand right now with the nearly hour-by-hour headlines around Hormuz and energy.
Angry militants in Iran continue to risk a wider war with the U.S., killing American servicemen in an attack on our ally Jordan. Trump again has warned the country, saying those responsible will “pay” for the attacks.
At the same time, one of Iran’s proxy terror groups, called the Houthis, is trying to ratchet things up by imposing a Red Sea blockade.
As I’ve written often lately, it’s an incredibly fluid, scary time where the news can change by the time you read this.
As I’ve been thinking about what’s going on, the one thought that hasn’t really played out is: what happens if all Iranian oil went offline? Right now Iran is still selling some oil on the global markets, either by avoiding the Strait blockade or by using the time under the peace MOU to increase sales and raise money. So what would happen if something were to happen to Iran’s oil hub, Kharg Island? Or the employees of the National Iran Oil Co (NIOC) just walked off the job and crushed Iranian production?
Oil expert Eric Nuttall of Canada’s Ninepoint Partners, a Toronto-based alternative asset management firm, said the risk to prices is higher, and he lays out the Iran scenario like this:
“With Middle Eastern production still down 7-8MM Bbl/d, global onshore inventories at near record low seasonal levels, an increasingly depleted US SPR, and significant tightness in refined product stocks, the world simply cannot afford to lose a further 2.6MM Bbl/d of Iranian production. The market up until now has been looking through or flat out ignoring the inevitable supply shock if the status quo persists, our base case expectation. Perhaps Iranian oil production going offline would be enough to finally act as a reality check. We think record high crack spreads are a leading indicator for what price action will look like for oil in the near future.”
Kevin Book of Clearview Energy Partners, an independent energy policy research firm that produces must-read research and is interviewed in our Inside Line below, says the key is how long Iranian oil were to be offline, but the market would be looking at a $5 per barrel increase at the minimum.
And Rapidan Energy Group’s Bob McNally is direct in his message, telling me that “all [Iran’s] exports are offline pretty much,” but if all their actual oil production closed, then “their refineries would shut down, and they’d have no more refined products after they drained storage. Transportation would grind to a halt. It would crush their economy.”
So while it’s a potentially crazy question about Iran and Hormuz, don’t write off the “no Iran oil” as pure fantasy.
Speaking of Hormuz, these days you need to keep your Straits straight. The next geographic area to study up on is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (BAM). The BAM is the narrow strait that runs between Yemen and Africa and is about as wide as Hormuz. The Strait is the only southern entry to the Red Sea, another waterway critical for oil and product flows.
RBI →”‘Bab el-Mandeb” roughly translates to “gate of grief”
RBI #2→ Some believe that thousands of years ago the BAM was shallow enough that humans could walk across it, leading to increased migration.
The risk to BAM is real. And it may be a reason why brent crude is nearing $100 a barrel.
Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research writes that the market continues to believe things will get better from here and both the U.S. and Iran will be forced to de-escalate. But Marcus also thinks we shouldn’t automatically underestimate the risk of some kind of supply disruption around the Red Sea. With Saudi Arabia pumping more oil through its East-West pipeline into the port of Yanbu, any Houthi attacks risk about 4½ million barrels of oil per day.
Iranian strongmen may believe they have the upper hand right now, as the new attacks have led to a new drop in crude oil tanker traffic out of the SOH. An insurance industry source tells me that while a shipowner “can get cover” – the industry term for insurance – there isn’t much demand because ship traffic has again slowed considerably.
Bottom line, here’s my Power Point takeaway on oil, energy and the macro markets. This spring, we learned that stocks can keep going higher even if oil and gasoline go up. That’s certainly surprised many, myself included. It’s likely for a cornucopia of reasons, and the energy-specific would be that gasoline was more expensive in the summer of 2022 than it is now (we got used to it), cars get better fuel mileage than they used to, and many of you now have the ability to work from home. The bigger reason, however, is that the trillions in A.I.-related spending is helping power incomes and the economy more than gasoline can cut it down.
I’m actually writing some of these words from the Milwaukee, Wisconsin airport where I was stranded by a canceled flight. A flight, I might add, that was oversold both ways, despite air fares that few would call cheap. I fly more than most, and I can tell you that across America, people are spending money on travel this summer. Gasoline prices be darned … at least for now.
Safe travels,
WALL STREET’S TAKE
The team at Goldman Sachs is back on the tape with a new oil note. Daan Struyven writes that Brent crude oil might rise back above $120 per barrel in the 4th quarter if Hormuz remains disrupted.
Struyven also warns that “recent inventory draws have left the market more vulnerable than in February” but that his “simulated price upside is less high than comparable estimates from that period, partly because we now assume greater demand elasticity – -especially in China — where crude imports remain weak.” In other words, China’s falling oil demand may keep a lid on prices, at least relative to a few months ago.
Speaking of inventories, the U.S. continues to sell oil from our strategic reserve, and there are growing concerns that we’re getting closer to what some call “tank bottoms,” or the levels at which it’s difficult to retrieve as much oil as wanted.
A story that really didn’t get the attention it deserved was that American companies are going to invest $60 billion or more in Iraq. The list of companies investing not only comes from the energy world — Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Shell, BP, Halliburton and more — but also from finance (JPMorgan Chase), consumer products (PepsiCo), health care (Abbott and Thermo Fisher Scientific) and more. President Donald Trump and Iraq’s Prime Minister spoke about the deal from the White House.
Chevron is involved in talks to rebuild a massive pipeline from Kirkuk in northern Iraq to the Syrian coast. The pipeline isn’t new, but has been damaged since 2003. The company is also reportedly talking about investments in two big Iraqi oil fields. UBS is bullish on Chevron (CVX), with a $220 12-month price target. That’s another 15% gain on a stock already up 25% this year. That UBS target is actually just about middle of the pack on Chevron, sandwiched between Melius Research’s high of $243 per Chevron share, and TD Cowen’s $197.
Another part of the Iraq news is that ConocoPhillips (COP) will invest alongside BP, buying a 42% stake in an oilfield. Evercore ISI likes the stock – it has a $145 price target – but says this Iraq move is “likely to raise some questions about how coherent the move is within a well-defined resource & [free cash flow] trajectory.” Part of Evercore’s bullish thesis is that COP’s free cash flow is “de-risked” and “uniquely attractive” right now, and they are concerned some investors may want more clarity on the Iraq story before “crediting the addition.”
It’s not all about oil. Natural gas-focused Excelerate Energy (EE) is also involved in the Iraq investments. While that’s not a key focus for Goldman Sachs, the firm still loves the stock. It just started coverage of EE with a buy rating and $49 target, a meaty 25% upside.
Excelerate’s main business is regasification and storage. Simply put, the company has 12 giant ships that hold natural gas. Goldman notes that Excelerate Energy has about a 25% market share in global floating ‘re-gas’ services and should benefit from lower LNG prices later this decade. Goldman also likes what it calls EE’s “underappreciated vertical integration opportunities.”
On a macro level, higher oil prices have meant higher oil and gas stock prices too. This month, seven large-cap names are up double digits, led by Marathon Petroleum (MPC). Marathon — helmed by New Jersey native CEO Maryann Mannen — is quietly hitting record highs and has popped 25% in July. Investors have realized energy investing isn’t a sprint; it’s a … well, you know.
TAKE A LOOK
Kpler’s Matt Smith says there are still many risks with shipping and oil.
INSIDE LINE
This weeks Inside Line is with Kevin Book, Co-Founder and Head of Research at ClearView Energy Partners. Kevin is one of just a handful of go-to energy experts who is also a D.C. insider.
RANDOM, BUT INTERESTING
Don’t lose sight of the Russia story. Ukraine continues to pound Putin’s energy assets, taking some Russian oil refining offline. API and the Energy Institute highlight how about 2.7 million barrels per day of Russian refining aren’t running, which means the country has to sell some of that oil on the open market as it can’t process it. That excess oil hitting the export market may be keeping crude prices from rising even more than they already have.
