Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh looks on during his first news conference since taking the helm at the central bank on June 17, 2026, in Washington.
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
Federal Reserve policymakers are split on the path for interest rates — and Kalshi traders also seem to be divided, seeing just over 50% odds of a hike this year.
Prediction market traders on Kalshi now forecast a 54% likelihood that the Fed will raise rates this year. That’s down slightly from 56% over the past day. This contract asks Kalshi traders when a hike will take place and would resolve if it happens before this year ends, before July 2027 or before 2028.
Kalshi traders see a nearly 80% chance that a hike will happen in 2028 and a 62% likelihood that it will happen before July 2027.
These results come a day after the U.S. central bank rolled out its June meeting minutes. The document said that “many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year.”
The key interest rate is currently in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% — where it has been since December 2025.
The Fed’s latest minutes also showed that “many other participants” deemed that the appropriate level for the rate would be “above the current target range at the end of this year.”
Central bank policymakers’ divided viewpoint comes as the U.S. grapples with inflation and rising tensions in the Middle East. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, hit an annual rate of 4.1% in May — the highest since April 2023.
Another similar market on Kalshi, asking how many rate cuts will happen this year, sees about a 76% chance that there will be none.
Those odds first increased from 68% to 77% on June 16, the first day of Kevin Warsh’s inaugural Federal Reserve meeting as chairman. Those numbers didn’t move much before and after the minutes were issued on Wednesday. The market’s outcome would be verified by the Fed.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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