Mortgage Rates Today, Friday, July 31: A Little Higher

Mortgage rates are higher today, as reports of Iranian strikes on multiple countries in the region threaten to expand the scope of the war. When fighting in Iran accelerates, it tends to push up oil prices. Mortgage rates usually follow suit.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.7% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is nine basis points higher than yesterday and eight basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

This brings July’s average 30-year rate to 6.5%, up 16 basis points from June’s average of 6.34%. This marks the highest monthly average reading since August 2025.

Average mortgage rates, last 30 days

📈 What influences mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

We had a few big-ticket economic news drops this week, including the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold overnight borrowing rates steady and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) showing that inflation fell in June.

These already feel like old news, and, frankly, did before they even happened. June’s PCE reflects a calmer period before the Iran ceasefire collapsed in early July, before oil prices resumed their volatile yo-yoing. With global oil benchmark prices surging past $100 a barrel last week, June’s inflation picture is already looking dated.

Next week, the Nerds are looking to the July jobs report. This is a little more exciting, since it will capture employers’ initial reactions to the war restarting — and with it, a renewed possibility of rising inflation on the horizon.

If the data shows that hiring slowed this month, the Fed could be in a pickle come September.

While most analysts have speculated that central bankers will raise rates at the Sept. 15-16 meeting, doing so could send the unemployment rate further up. On the other hand, if employment seems manageable, it will further cement the likelihood that higher rates are coming in September.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.2% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

🔒 Should I lock my rate?

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.

🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

About the author

Taylor Getler is a home and mortgages writer for NerdWallet. Her work has been featured in outlets such as MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance, MSN and Nasdaq. Taylor is enthusiastic about financial literacy and helping consumers make smart, informed choices with their money.

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