Jefferies’ call: Hold on GE Vernova, Buy on Hitachi and Siemens
Jefferies has started coverage on GE Vernova T&D India (GE Vernova) with a “Hold” and a target price of Rs 6,000 per share, implying limited upside from the current levels and valuing the stock at 65 times FY28 estimated earnings. In contrast, the brokerage has retained “Buy” ratings on Hitachi Energy India and Siemens Energy India, with target prices of Rs 43,145 and Rs 4,500 per share, respectively, both implying around 17% upside.
“We retain Buy on Hitachi Energy (Hitachi) and Siemens Energy (SE) given their strong 40%+ earnings CAGR on operating leverage backed by strong revenue visibility. We initiate coverage on GE Vernova T&D (GE) with a Hold,” Jefferies said.
Jefferies expects GE Vernova to deliver about 35–36% EPS CAGR over FY26–29E, but sees even faster profit compounding in Hitachi and Siemens, which justifies higher or similar multiples and a more constructive rating on those stocks.
The house view is anchored in a strong and prolonged capex cycle in India’s power transmission and distribution segment, where annual transmission project awards have more than doubled and are expected to sustain at elevated levels.Transmission project bids have already jumped from an annual run rate of about Rs 390–400 billion in FY24 to over Rs 800 billion from FY25 onwards, and management commentary from Power Grid and Adani Energy suggests this pipeline could stay above Rs 800 billion through FY27–28 and potentially cross Rs 1 trillion on a sustainable basis.The brokerage estimates a USD 100 billion‑plus transmission capex pipeline over FY27–36, translating into over Rs 14 trillion of national transmission opportunity when combining the Central Electricity Authority’s plan to integrate 900 GW of non‑fossil capacity by FY36 and the Brahmaputra basin HVDC development. With only a handful of qualified high‑voltage equipment suppliers and transformer manufacturing capacity expected to rise 80–90% versus FY25 levels—still lagging the demand trajectory—the brokerage believes “supply shortages should continue and pricing should remain firm,” supporting margins for key OEMs.Jefferies estimates that roughly 40% of India’s transmission spend is addressable to equipment suppliers, pointing to a sizeable and long‑duration order funnel for names such as GE Vernova, Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy, and CG Power.
Against this backdrop of tight domestic manufacturing capacity, rising HVDC intensity and favourable pricing, the brokerage is positioning investors towards companies where the combination of order‑book visibility, margin upside and valuation still offers meaningful risk‑reward.
